The 2023 NFL season is in the rearview mirror, which means free agency is rapidly approaching. To prepare for the 2024 free-agency signing period, here are the answers to some of the biggest questions regarding the process.
What are the important dates ahead of free agency?
Teams can begin to designate players for the franchise or transition tag on Tuesday, a process that must be completed before March 5 at 4 p.m. ET.
The franchise tag is a one-year tender equal to the average of the five highest salaries at the player’s position over the past five seasons, or 120 percent of his previous salary, whichever figure is higher. There are two types of franchise tags: non-exclusive and exclusive. The former allows players to negotiate with other teams, while the latter prohibits it, but both give a player’s current team the right to match any offer or receive two first-round picks if he signs elsewhere.
The transition tag, however, is a one-year offer worth the average of the 10 highest salaries at a player’s position. The tagging team does not receive compensation if it is unable to match an offer.
When does free agency open?
On March 11, teams can begin negotiations with the agents of players slated to be unrestricted free agents. The free-agency period will officially open March 13 at 4 p.m. ET, the start of the new league year, and teams must be under the salary cap before then. From there, expect to see several players get cut before March 17, the trigger date for 2024 contracts to become fully guaranteed.
Which teams have the most projected cap space?
Cap space will continue to fluctuate throughout the offseason as teams cut and sign players or restructure their contracts. Even so, the five teams with the most projected cap space this offseason are the Washington Commanders ($73.6M), Tennessee Titans ($67.7M), New England Patriots ($66M), Cincinnati Bengals ($59.4M) and Indianapolis Colts ($58.9M).
Which teams have the least projected cap space?
At the time of this publication, 11 teams were over the salary cap for 2024, led by the New Orleans Saints (-$83.7M). The Miami Dolphins (-$51.9M), Buffalo Bills (-$51.3M), Los Angeles Chargers (-$45.8M) and Denver Broncos (-$24.1M) round out the top five teams with the worst cap situations, per Over the Cap’s projections.
Who stands to gain the most in free agency?
Chiefs DT Chris Jones
The five-time Pro Bowler was exceptional in what could’ve been his final game as a Chief, generating a team-high six pressures and collecting two QB hits in Kansas City’s Super Bowl LVIII win. Jones, who held out of Kansas City’s Week 1 loss to Detroit over last offseason’s contract dispute, was vocal throughout the playoffs about his potential departure. Given the price he’ll command, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Chiefs can’t retain him, as he’s projected to sign a four-year, $120M deal this offseason, based on Pro Football Focus’ estimates.
Who are the top quarterbacks on the market?
The 2024 free-agent crop of quarterbacks isn’t particularly strong, but there are intriguing players. With plenty of teams facing uncertainty at the position, it’ll be fascinating to see how things shake out. Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew II, Ryan Tannehill and Jacoby Brissett are the top five quarterbacks to choose from this offseason, though Russell Wilson could be a latecomer depending on how his situation in Denver unfolds.
Coming off a season-ending Achilles injury, Cousins will be the most interesting free-agent QB to follow this offseason. At the time of his injury, Cousins was tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns (18) while ranking second in passing yards (2,331). When healthy, he’s a top-10 quarterback, but his age (he’ll be 36 in August) and projected contract (two-year, $60M total) could force the Vikings to go in a different direction.
Mayfield has a case to be considered the safest choice for teams in need of a quarterback after having an outstanding season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In 17 games, Mayfield set career highs in completion rate (64.3%), passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28). Signs point to Mayfield re-signing with Tampa Bay, but perhaps the departure of former Bucs OC Dave Canales to Carolina as head coach could influence the former No. 1 overall draft pick to explore his options this offseason.
Tannehill, Minshew and Brissett will be options for teams in search of someone to compete for a starting job or to serve as a bridge quarterback. NFL insider Ian Rapoport recently reported that the Pittsburgh Steelers could explore signing Tannehill this offseason since they hired his former offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, for the same role. Nonetheless, Minshew is the most viable option among these passers, especially since he thrived filling in for injured Colts rookie Anthony Richardson this season (3,305 passing yards, 18 total touchdowns).
Who are the top running backs on the market?
While running back is the most dispensable position in the sport, the 2024 free-agent class has several prominent names hitting the market — albeit mostly stars at the back end of their careers. Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler are the clear top-five available players at the position.
Despite rushing for less than half of last season’s rushing total in an injury-plagued 2023 (805 yards), Jacobs should earn the most lucrative contract in free agency. Jacobs could leave Las Vegas this offseason, but ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported last week the Raiders are interested in re-signing the 26-year-old “depending on the price.”
Barkley and Henry should be at the top of nearly every contending team’s wish list this offseason, given that both are still capable of producing above-average numbers. Pollard is an interesting bounce-back candidate after his first season as a starter — during which he was hampered by the leg injury he suffered in the 2022 playoffs — failed to meet expectations (1,005 rushing yards, six touchdowns).
Ekeler, on the other hand, might not find a lead-back role on anything other than a struggling team after his production plummeted in 2023 (628 rushing yards, six total touchdowns in 14 games).
Who are the top wide receivers on the market?
In this year’s free-agency period, the wide receivers are arguably the most talented position group available. Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr., Calvin Ridley and Marquise Brown make up the top five of PFF’s free-agent wideout rankings. However, none of the premier options may switch teams this offseason.
Evans, the Buccaneers’ all-time leading receiver, continues to be the model of consistency, finishing 2023 with his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season. While every receiver-needy team will surely inquire about his services, it’s hard to imagine him walking away from the legacy he has built in Tampa Bay.
Higgins, coming off his worst season as a pro, is expected to receive the franchise tag from Cincinnati this offseason, per The Athletic’s Paul Dehner Jr. Pittman is another franchise-tag candidate, and the 2020 second-round pick doesn’t appear to be opposed to receiving the tender. Meanwhile, Ridley has expressed interest in re-signing with Jacksonville after leading the team in receiving yards (1,016) and touchdown catches (eight) this season.
That leaves Brown, a former first-round pick who caught 51 passes for 574 yards and four touchdowns for Arizona this season, as the best wide receiver most likely to sign with a new team this offseason. Even though it’s evident Brown isn’t a No. 1 receiver, he’d be a fantastic addition to the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
Who are the top defenders on the market?
Aside from Jones, the highest-profile defenders on the market this offseason will be edge-rushers Josh Allen and Brian Burns, DT Justin Madubuike and safety Antoine Winfield Jr.
If Jaguars GM Trent Baalke is a man of his word, Allen won’t be leaving Jacksonville this offseason after setting the franchise’s season sack record in 2023 (17.5). As for Burns (46 career sacks across five seasons), his future with Carolina is a bit murkier considering the team won’t be contending for a playoff spot anytime soon.
Madubuike would be a fantastic consolation prize for whoever strikes out in the Jones sweepstakes. The second-team All-Pro selection broke out this season with 13 sacks and 33 QB hits for Baltimore’s top-ranked defense.
A first-team All-Pro honoree, Winfield is poised to be the next player to reset the safety market, though it wouldn’t be shocking if Tampa Bay placed the franchise tag on him this offseason. In 2023, Winfield had 122 tackles, six forced fumbles, four fumble recoveries and three interceptions and led all NFL defensive backs in sacks (six).
Which team could make the biggest splash?
Although the Commanders have the most cap space in the NFL at their disposal, the Texans are well-positioned to make a league-changing acquisition. Last year’s draft selections of QB C.J. Stroud and edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. — the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year Award winners — have put Houston’s rebuild far ahead of schedule. Having such a talented quarterback on a rookie deal creates the urgency to win now, and if the Texans add Jones, they could become a serious threat to ending Kansas City’s dynasty.
