Virginia is one of several teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble the day before the bracket reveal on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET.
On Friday, the Cavaliers (23-10, 13-7 in ACC) lost in overtime to NC State, 73-65. That result sealed their fate as one of the last four teams in the field according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, or, per CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, placed them just outside the cut line.
As Virginia waits to see if it will play in the tournament, here are 10 others also on the bubble.
SAFE: Michigan State
The Spartans held their own against Associated Press No. 3 Purdue in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament before losing, 67-62. Michigan State (19-14, 10-10 in Big Ten) doesn’t have a record that suggests it’s an NCAA Tournament team, but it ranks in the top 25 in both NET (No. 25) and KenPom (No. 20) while playing in the second-toughest conference in college basketball, per Bracketologists.
OUT: Wake Forest
Wake’s loss to Pitt in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals likely ended its dreams of making a run to the big dance. Lunardi lists the Demon Deacons as one of his last four teams out, their No. 44 NET ranking and poor non-conference strength of schedule (249th) working against them.
SAFE: Mississippi State
If the Bulldogs’ second-round win over LSU didn’t clinch their NCAA Tournament bid, their blowout upset win over 1-seed Tennessee in the quarters should have done the trick. Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10 in SEC) has entrenched itself as a 9-seed in updated brackets from Lunardi and Palm.
OUT: Seton Hall
A 91-72 loss to St. John’s means Seton Hall (20-12, 13-7 in Big East) will sweat out the next 30 hours as it awaits its NCAA Tournament fate. The Pirates were in a strong position to make the field earlier this week, yet whereas other programs have played their way into the conversation, their loss in the quarters of the Big East Tournament could lead to them just missing the field. Lunardi has Seton Hall as his last team out, and it’s just behind Virginia on the cut line according to Palm.
SAFE: Colorado
The Buffaloes will play in either the First Four or receive one of the last four byes, according to bracket analysis by ESPN and CBS Sports. Colorado (24-9, 13-7 in Pac-12) defeated Washington State (24-9, 14-6 in Pac-12) in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, setting up an unexpected showdown with Oregon (22-11, 12-8 in Pac-12) in the tournament finals. With another win, it will remove itself from the bubble conversation entirely, ensuring its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2021.
OUT: Oregon
The Ducks are in much more of a must-win situation entering the Pac-12 title game. Oregon upset top-seed Arizona (25-8, 15-5 in Pac-12) in the semis but requires an automatic berth to go dancing. Its resume isn’t strong enough for an at-large bid. Even with the win over the Wildcats, the Ducks are 61st in NET and 58th in KenPom
SAFE: New Mexico
The Mountain West has arguably never been stronger, and New Mexico (25-9, 10-8 in MWC) could give the conference an impressive six teams in the NCAA Tournament. A 9-seed according to Palm, the Lobos are the last team in the field in Lunardi’s view, which would put them in the First Four on Tuesday. New Mexico plays last year’s national runner-up, San Diego State, in the conference tournament finals on Saturday.
OUT: NC State
Just as with Oregon, the Wolfpack must win their conference tournament to make it into the field of 68. NC State’s stunning upset win over Virginia propelled it to the next four out according to Lunardi, but its bubble will burst with a loss to North Carolina, a potential NCAA Tournament 1-seed, in the ACC Tournament finals.
SAFE: St. John’s
New Mexico’s opponent in the First Four according to Lunardi, St. John’s showed it belonged in the field after reaching the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament and giving expected 1-seed UConn all it could handle in a 95-90 loss.
OUT: Indiana State
It’s sad but true: Indiana State’s Robbie Avila probably isn’t going dancing. One of college basketball’s breakout stars this season, Avila averaged 17.5 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game this season and transfixed fans with his rec specs and unassuming physical frame. However, Indiana State’s loss last Sunday to Drake in the Missouri Valley Tournament finals put it in the pool of at-large candidates. The Sycamores are 30th in NET, but the MVC ranks 10th in conference strength, which could be held against them on Selection Sunday.
