The New England Patriots enter Week 12 within the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. They’ve a two-game lead over the Buffalo Payments, have already gained the primary head-to-head assembly and solely play one recreation the remainder of the best way in opposition to a workforce that at the moment a successful report — Buffalo.
The most important story involving the Patriots this season is the emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and his rise to stardom. He has modified every thing for the franchise and, on the floor, has made them a viable Tremendous Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC.
Are the Patriots “idiot’s gold”?
Former Patriots quarterback and one-time NFL MVP Got here Newton referred to New England as “idiot’s gold.” Why? The workforce’s schedule.
The subplot to the Patriots’ success is the aforementioned schedule itself. Particularly, how mushy it has been. The Patriots enter Week 12 having performed what’s mathematically the NFL’s second-softest schedule, with solely the Chicago Bears (.348) having a decrease energy of schedule quantity than the Patriots (.363).
Together with that, the Patriots’ energy of victory (.355) is the second-lowest amongst groups at the moment in a playoff place, forward of solely the Bears (.285).
If there’s a crimson flag with groups just like the Patriots and Bears, it’s the easy truth they’ve each performed extraordinarily favorable schedules up to now and haven’t but been totally examined. However does this imply something with regards to potential playoff success?
It would.
NFL groups with low energy of victory numbers are likely to battle in playoffs
There are not any straightforward video games within the NFL. This isn’t school soccer the place Alabama can simply schedule a directional college from Missouri and pay them cash to indicate up for a 60-point win. All people is sweet. All people is able to beating all people else on any given week. However there are video games which can be considerably harder than others. Thus far this season, the Patriots and Bears probably not performed any of these.
New England, for instance, has performed simply 4 groups that at the moment have a successful report. It’s 3-1 in these video games, having overwhelmed Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, whereas additionally dropping to Pittsburgh.
The Bears, in the meantime, have performed only one recreation in opposition to a workforce with a successful report (the Detroit Lions) and misplaced by 31 factors. The Bears even have a 14-point loss to a .500 Baltimore Ravens workforce.
However what precisely does this imply for the playoffs?
Nicely, if you happen to return over the previous 10 seasons, there have been 23 groups that entered the playoffs with a energy of victory variety of .400 or decrease.
(Power of victory and schedule numbers by way of ESPN’s playoff standings web page.)
Solely 9 of these 23 groups gained a playoff recreation.
Solely three of them (the 2024 Washington Commanders, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars) gained multiple playoff recreation.
Mixed, these groups went simply 14-21 total of their respective playoff video games. That’s solely a .400 successful proportion. Not precisely numerous success as soon as they began taking part in harder groups.
Just one workforce that has appeared in a Tremendous Bowl over the previous 10 years has finished so with a energy of victory quantity decrease than .400 (the 2020 Buccaneers), whereas no Tremendous Bowl workforce over that stretch has had a decrease energy of schedule quantity than .439.
On the finish of the day groups can solely play who the NFL tells them to play. Good groups additionally ought to beat up on lesser groups. No person ought to apologize for successful within the NFL. However there can nonetheless be some questions as to how good sure groups truly are.
The Patriots have video games with Buffalo and Baltimore remaining that shall be their hardest assessments.
The Bears play a frightening schedule the remainder of the best way with Pittsburgh, Detroit, the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and Inexperienced Bay Packers (twice).
How these groups do in these video games will inform us lots about their playoff probabilities.
