This monsoon will end next month as a “normal” or even an “above normal” monsoon year that brought bountiful rains to most parts of the country. And, the rainfall quantum will go into India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s records as one of those good monsoon years. But was the monsoon truly bountiful? Agricultural indicators and disaster data show otherwise.
Numbers talk
Paddy acreage is down — in the week ending August 26, paddy acreage was down 6% over the same period last year. Sowing has not even begun in several parts of the paddy belt of Indo-Gangetic Plains according to agriculture experts. They may begin sowing only this week or next when rains hit parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
There is 7% excess rain over the country with 26% excess over south peninsula; 20% excess over central India; a 19% deficiency over east and northeast India and 0% excess rain over northwest India as on Monday according to data with IMD. It’s important to look at the district wise map of rainfall recorded in the past 2.5 months to understand the crisis.
All of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar; parts of West Bengal; parts of Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Tripura are marked in red indicating large stretches of the country witnessing extremely dry conditions even into end of August. With barely a month left for monsoon to begin withdrawing, the farming community has little time to recover from this crisis.
West Uttar Pradesh has a rain deficit of 44%; east Uttar Pradesh, 44%; Bihar, 39%; Jharkhand 26%; Gangetic West Bengal, 28%; Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura have recorded 26% rain deficit. HT reported in a data-based story on August 23 that this may be the worst geographical skew of monsoon between the Gangetic plains and the rest of the country in recorded history.
A better idea of how dry the soil is for agriculture can be assessed through IMD’s standard precipitation index (SPI). In July, most districts in east and northeast India have been moderately to extremely dry while parts of central India and west coast have been severely to extremely wet. Neither can support agriculture. The monthly aridity map for June and July produced by the Drought Research Unit of IMD Pune provides a similar picture. The maps for August also highlight extremely dry conditions in the east. SPI is an index used for drought monitoring.
Meanwhile in August, dozens of people have been killed in flash floods and landslides triggered by episodes of extremely heavy rain over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Odisha in the past one week. The Chakki Railway bridge in Himachal Pradesh’s Kangra was seen collapsing during flash floods on August 20; a crocodile was seen entering a water-logged residential colony in Shivpuri, Madhya Pradesh last week; around one million people have been affected in Odisha according to state government estimates as several northern districts continue to be impacted by floods as Subarnarekha, Budhabalang, Jalaka and Baitaran rivers overflowed last week.
The intensity of extreme rain episodes are difficult to forecast often in view of the climate crisis, but this time, IMD did not forecast the skewed rainfall patterns in the country very well. In fact, the apocalyptic floods in neighbouring Pakistan are linked to extreme rainfall caused by a well marked low pressure system that developed over Bay of Bengal on August 19 and travelled across Central India before reaching Pakistan. The glacial melt water from Indus added to extreme monsoon rain leading to the catastrophe in the past 2-3 days, scientists have said.
In its long-range forecast for the monsoon season issued on May 31, IMD said monsoon rains are going to be well-distributed. “The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the four homogeneous region is most likely to be Above Normal for Central India (>106% of LPA) and South Peninsula (>106% of LPA). Rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northeast India (96-106% of LPA) and Northwest India (92-108% of LPA). The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA),” IMD had forecast adding that “monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially with most parts of the country expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall except some parts of eastcentral, east and northeast India and extreme southwest peninsular India, where it is likely to be below normal.” Though IMD’s LRF suggested that some parts of east and northeast India may receive below normal rain but not the extent of the dry period.
Again, on August 1, IMD projected that monsoon rain during the second half of monsoon (August and September) is likely to be “normal” (94 to 106%) of the long period average. Normal to above normal rain is likely over south India except parts of west coast; westcentral and northwest India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many parts of west coast; some parts of eastcentral, east and northeast India during the next two months, IMD had said. But the magnitude of the crisis was not captured in these forecasts.
IMD will have to improve its forecasts on spatial distribution of monsoon as during the same period when the IGP region remained virtually dry, entire central India and parts of the west coast saw deluge with most stations recording localised floods due to large excess (over 60% above normal) rain. In short, adjacent regions—the central plains suffered floods when the IGP region faced severe aridity during the past two months. M Mohapatra, director general of IMD had said last week that nearly entire UP has been left dry during all three monsoon months.
How are farmers dealing with the skewed rainfall?
What would a failed paddy crop mean for them in the coming months has not been assessed yet. The government needs to acknowledge the crisis and provide financial support wherever possible. The delay in Kharif crop could also mean a delay in Rabi crop cycle agrarian experts have said. The cascading effect of uneven rains will have to be monitored carefully.
Almost all low pressure areas that formed in July and August formed to slightly south of their normal position. Hence, the monsoon trough also remained to the south of its normal position during most of the time in July and August, IMD scientists have said. “We cannot say immediately as to why all low pressure systems this monsoon during July and August formed south of their normal position. The position of the monsoon trough is highly influenced by upper air dynamics like the location of the Tibetan High. Climate experts will have to analyse this dominant pattern that we are seeing this year,” explained Ananda Kumar Das, in charge, cyclones at IMD last week.
Tibetan High is an area of high pressure over the Tibetan Plateau which influences monsoon. A continuous study of how the climate crisis is impacting the monsoon and agriculture will be needed to help protect farmers against crop loss or delayed sowing.
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