Affordability-aiding lower mortgage rates battled a sentiment-sapping surge in geopolitical panic in March, with analysts expecting the latter to outweigh the former with a modest 0.7% MoM decline (after January’s plunged – weather? – and February’s modest rebound).
The analysts under-estimated the fear from war-mongering as existing home sales plunged 3.6% MoM (down bigly from an upwardly revised 2.7% MoM jump in Feb). That is the second biggest drop in existing home sales since Nov 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
That dragged Existing Home Sale SAAR back below 4 million homes (3.98m to be exact), near the lowest level since Lehman…
Source: Bloomberg
The NAR report showed the median selling price rose 1.4% from a year earlier in March, to $408,800.
Source: Bloomberg
Pushing Existing (Used) House prices back above New House Prices…
The inventory of previously owned homes edged up to a four-month high but remains historically depressed.
Source: Bloomberg
Contract signings declined across all regions, according to the NAR.
Sales in the Northeast slid to the lowest on record in data going back to 1999, while those in the Midwest matched the weakest pace since 2011.
The NAR also slashed its 2026 existing-home sales forecast to 4%, from 14% previously.
“Mortgage rates have been rising, and that has led us to trim our home sales outlook for the year,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
It appears home sales front-ran the rise in mortgage rates since the war began.
