All permutations for Europe and relegation

The end of the Premier League season is upon us and it has certainly been a thrilling campaign with lots of drama along the way.

While the title may have already been wrapped up by Manchester City at the expense of Arsenal, there is still a huge amount to play for all over the rest of the table on the final day of the Premier League season.

The primary focus will be on the relegation zone where only one team has already had their fate sealed, which is Southampton. Some eyes will also be on the various European qualification spots. Here are all of the permutations you need to know about to enjoy the final day of the 2022/23 Premier League season.

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The Champions League race in the Premier League has been thrilling this season, but Manchester United actually brought it to a close on Thursday night when they easily beat Chelsea 4-1. It means that Manchester City, Arsenal, Man Utd and Newcastle will be the Premier League’s representatives in the Champions League next season.

All that is yet to be decided in the top four is who will finish in third place. Man Utd are now two points ahead of Newcastle so they just need to win against Fulham to make sure that they keep third. If they draw and Newcastle win away at Chelsea, the Geordies would nab third due to goal difference. The only real desire to finish third is due to bragging rights and stature, rather than anything too tangible beyond a couple of million in prize money (which, relatively speaking, isn’t a lot).

Similar to the Champions League battle, the Europa League battle was expected to go down to the wire. As it turns out, Liverpool are guaranteed to finish in fifth place and Brighton are guaranteed to finish in sixth place, meaning they will be England’s Europa League participants next season.

There is actually a chance that three teams enter the Europa League next season from the Premier League, but only if West Ham win the Europa Conference League final against Fiorentina. That has no bearing on the Premier League table going into the final day.

The Europa Conference League slot is where the interest lies on Sunday, with three teams fighting for seventh place in the Premier League. Seventh in the Premier League gets this spot because Man Utd won the Carabao Cup and they already have a European spot. The teams in question are Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford.

Aston Villa are the team in pole position so all they need to do is equal or better the results of Brentford and Tottenham. If Villa are beaten, Brentford do not win and Spurs draw, Spurs will get seventh on goal difference.

Tottenham will also get seventh if they win and Villa draw or lose, while Brentford are going to have to beat Man City and hope both Villa and Tottenham draw or lose if they are to qualify for Europe for the first time. The Bees are certainly the outside bet.

This is where the majority of the focus will be on the final day of the 2022/23 Premier League season, as three teams are all vying to finish in the place above the relegation zone.

Everton are currently the team in a position of strength, while Leeds United and Leicester City are in the bottom three. All of the power lies with Everton as if they win their game, Leeds and Leicester’s results are irrelevant.

Leicester and Leeds are level on points. Leicester need to win their game and hope that Everton either lose or draw. Leicester can finish level on points with Everton if they win and Everton draw, but Leicester’s goal difference is better and they would be safe. They also have a better goal difference than Leeds so if Everton draw and both Leicester and Leeds win, it is Leicester that would be safe.

Leeds also simply have to win their game and hope that Leicester lose or draw, with Everton also losing. If Leeds win and Everton draw, they would be level on points and Leeds would need to beat Tottenham by three clear goals in order to get the goal difference swing on Everton.

The clearest way of viewing it is that if Everton win, it is game over. If Leicester and Leeds both lose or draw, it is game over regardless of what the Toffees do.