2023 provided an exciting mix of good news, ugly news, just plain bad news, and some so-so news. We started the year in correction mode, with falling housing prices, falling demand, and persistent inflation. Then, a flurry of federal interest rate hikes came, and the market reached a slow crawl by Q4. Now that inventory has fallen off a cliff, the labor market has slowed, and inflation is treading below 4%, we will surely be in store for another interesting year of data and stories to share.
But for now, here’s a recap of our top stories from 2023 and what shaped this year’s narrative.
#Airbnbust
By Lindsay Frankel
The biggest story we published this year was #Airbnbbust: The Fall of Short-Term Rentals, which came out in early January. The story broke after reports of oversupply crunching markets that became oversaturated during the pandemic era, which drove down daily rates and occupancy. Paired with government crackdowns, which may continue to get worse, there were some fears that vacation rentals were in for a tough year.
Now, as we look back, the market didn’t collapse, and despite lower demand, hosts still found ways to make more money. But going forward, it’s the threat of government regulations that stands in the way of future growth. We’ll see how that plays out in 2024.
The Lasting Truths of Real Estate
By Lindsay Frankel
While not the flashiest of headlines, The 11 Lasting Truths Of Real Estate: These Experts Divulge Their Secrets To Success was a cornerstone in our catalog this year. It turns out that real estate has concrete rules and realities that never change, regardless of where you are or what year it is. Whether it’s tenant management, due diligence, or recognizing and reacting to market cycles, this article has something for everyone.
Top 10 Cash Flow Markets
By Dave Meyer
Who doesn’t love cash flow? Originally published in 2022, our Top 10 Cash Flow Markets got a refresh for 2023, and it was just as popular as it was the year before. In a national housing environment that’s grown more and more expensive, good cash flow has been one of the sacrifices many investors have had to make in their deals this year. We tried to alleviate some of the pain by pointing out where you could stretch your money the farthest.
Leading the list is Detroit, and it will likely be on the list again when we refresh for 2024 in the coming months.
The Eight Most Affordable Markets
By Dave Meyer
Much like the cash flow markets, we wanted to find the needles in the haystack in an overheated national environment. These 8 Most Affordable Markets were tough to find, but after filtering for market size, median home prices, rent-to-price ratios, and population growth, we think we found them.
Leading the list is Oklahoma City, which boasted a $165,000 median home price at the time of writing—a real bargain for a big city.
We’ll be updating this article in the coming months as well.
The Multifamily Crash
By Scott Trench
Rounding out our top five is Multifamily Real Estate Is At Risk Of Crashing — Here’s Why, written by BiggerPockets CEO Scott Trench in February. In this multi-part, in-depth review of the multifamily market, Trench lays out the risks facing the market: cap rates that were lower than interest rates, low rent growth, rising interest rates, and pressure on valuations and debt underwriting.
A lot of the forecasts made in the article turned out to be true. While I wouldn’t say that multifamily housing “crashed,” it certainly underperformed compared to the pandemic years, especially in rent growth.
Closing the Year
The year’s theme revolved around stretching your scope to find the right deals. It was a challenging market, especially in the pandemic boomtowns like Austin and Boise. Now that we’re about to be four years removed from the beginning of the pandemic and have gone through a modest housing correction nationally, I’d expect 2024 to be a true return to normalcy, with seasonal patterns and normal growth prevailing.
On our end, we’ll continue to provide the news, data, and stories you need to be a better-informed investor and make the right investment decisions.
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Note By BiggerPockets: These are opinions written by the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of BiggerPockets.
