FIMI does not predict what a government will do. It classifies what it has done, and directs the analyst toward the correct transmission mechanism, the correct positioning horizon, and the correct risk assessment.
The South Korean case was not a crisis. It was a clean, verifiable example of a mechanism that is becoming more common as governments in post-QE environments seek tools that produce monetary-scale demand effects without requiring central bank action. The same logic applied in three jurisdictions over six years. The probability of recurrence is non-zero, and the precedents make it not a hypothesis.
When the next case emerges practitioners who have a name for it and a checklist to verify it will be positioned ahead of those who reach for the nearest available label.
The label determines the position. The wrong label means the wrong trade.
References
[1] Bank of Korea. Monetary Policy Decision, April 10, 2026.
https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000634/view.do?nttId=10097454&menuNo=400069
[2] Ministry of Economy and Finance, Republic of Korea. 2026 Supplementary Budget to Overcome the Middle East War Crisis. March 31, 2026.
https://www.khan.co.kr/en/article/202603311234007/
[3] Korea Herald. Gov’t proposes W26.2tr extra budget, including W4.8tr for cash handouts. March 31, 2026.
https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10706553
[4] Seoul Economic Daily. Korea Passes 26.2 Trillion Won Supplementary Budget. April 10, 2026.
https://en.sedaily.com/politics/2026/04/10/korea-passes-262-trillion-won-supplementary-budget-payments
[5] FocusEconomics. Korea Central Bank Meeting: Central Bank Stands Pat in April. April 11, 2026.
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https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fed-response-to-covid19/
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https://www.researchaffiliates.com/insights/publications/articles/802-too-soon-pandemic-policy-response-raises-risk-of-inflation
[8] Bank of England. HM Treasury and Bank of England announce temporary extension to Ways and Means facility. April 2020.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2020/april/hmt-and-boe-announce-temporary-extension-to-ways-and-means-facility
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https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/abenomics-preliminary-analysis-and-outlook/
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https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2019/15/
[11] Feltmate, T. Assessing the Feasibility of President Trump’s Tariff Dividend Checks. TD Economics. December 5, 2025.
https://economics.td.com/us-assessing-the-feasibility-of-President-Trump-Tariff-dividend-checks
[12] Sargent, T.J. and Wallace, N. Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 1981.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/quarterly-review/some-unpleasant-monetarist-arithmetic
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https://uva.theopenscholar.com/eric-leeper/publications/equilibria-under-%E2%80%98active%E2%80%99and-%E2%80%98passive%E2%80%99monetary-and-fiscal-policies
[14] Bernanke, B.S. Deflation: Making Sure “It” Doesn’t Happen Here. Federal Reserve Board. November 21, 2002.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm
[15] Turner, A. Between Debt and the Devil: Money, Credit, and Fixing Global Finance. Princeton University Press, 2015. ISBN 978-0691165856.
https://books.google.com/books/about/Between_Debt_and_the_Devil.html?id=D26YDwAAQBAJ
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https://www.hoover.org/research/fiscal-theory-price-level
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https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/06/02/quasi-fiscal-implications-of-central-bank-crisis-interventions-534076
