Brazil provides perhaps the most fertile ground for the study of democracy today. The South American nation has term limits for presidents and state governors; corporations are banned from making election campaign contributions, and even individual donations come with restrictions. While most large democracies, such as India and the United States (US), have only two national parties that dominate politics, Brazil’s diverse multi-party system has produced presidents from four different parties in the 21st century. Brazil has 32 parties from the far-Left to the far-Right but is balanced by a heavy centre; the Centrão, a grouping that doesn’t subscribe to any ideology, has consistently secured the most seats in Brazil’s Congress over the past two decades.
Although Brazil follows a presidential system, the Congress can override presidential vetoes — it has approved only 34% of incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro’s proposals. In 2022, Brazil announced a new system of political federations, which, unlike coalitions, must remain intact throughout the electoral cycle, limiting issues such as party-switching and pork-barrel politics that trouble coalition governments worldwide. In addition to free and fair elections, Brazil uses 577,000 electronic voting machines that enable the country of 216 million people to release results on the same day of voting. Since voting is compulsory, turnout is always high, averaging 80% in the past two decades – far higher than the average turnout in India and the US.
While these attributes make Brazil a dynamic and progressive democracy, it has its share of problems. Brazil provides a striking example of the perils of disinformation. The two candidates vying to become Brazil’s next president – Bolsonaro and ex-president Luiz Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva – are in a no-holds-barred contest for the elections scheduled on October 30. The campaigns have become exceedingly personal, accompanied by a barrage of fake news.
Bolsonaro and his supporters accuse Lula of absurdities such as planning Bolsonaro’s assassination and closing churches if elected. These antics form part of a popular trope in democracies: The “anti-vote”, which creates multiple narratives to convince people to vote against rather than for a particular candidate.
Lula has not held back either. He called Bolsonaro the “king of fake news,” a “tiny little dictator” and a compulsive liar. In 2002, when Lula’s rivals painted him as a Communist, he wrote a letter outlining his more moderate financial plans, allaying fears among investors and markets; now, Lula has published another letter, this time addressing Brazil’s conservative evangelical community, promising to maintain religious freedoms if elected.
Despite this atmosphere of chaos, Brazil is more prepared to fight fake news than most countries. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, an independent body that governs electoral laws, signed agreements with Google, Twitter, WhatsApp, Facebook and others to limit the spread of fake news. The election chief can order social media companies to remove posts from their platforms within two hours and even threaten to suspend their services in Brazil.
The mountain of disinformation against Lula, combined with a few other factors, has made this a closer race. “With each passing day, Bolsonaro closes the gap a little more, thanks to a massive social media campaign, real and fake, aimed particularly at religious voters; billions in government spending aimed at buying votes from the poor, truckers, and others; and the overall improvement of Brazil’s economy,” says Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly.
Yet, Lula is still likely to win; polls favour him, and many influential Brazilians, including former presidents, presidential candidates, economists and politicians, have thrown their weight behind him. But even if Bolsonaro loses, Brazil’s “beef, bible and bullets” movement — which includes influential agriculturalists, conservative Christians (particularly evangelicals) and the pro-gun lobby — will remain a powerful force in politics.
Besides Brazil’s significance as one of the world’s largest democracies and economies, the country has become increasingly important for India. After all, India exports more to Brazil than it does to Japan, South Africa or Thailand. Since economic ties underpin the India-Brazil bilateral, ideology and politics remain secondary. Regardless of the political slant of the next dispensation in Brazil, New Delhi will continue to engage deeply with Brasilia through BRICS and G20.
Hari Seshasayee is global fellow, Woodrow Wilson CenterThe views expressed are personal
