That is half considered one of a 3-part collection by Cipher Temporary Knowledgeable and former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia Dave Pitts, who additionally serves as a member of The Cipher Temporary’s new Grey Zone Group.
EXPERT PERSPECTIVE — Ten thousand North Korean troopers arrive in Russia to try to drive the Ukrainians from Russian soil, though North Korea isn’t at warfare with Ukraine.
China conducts persistent and aggressive Coast Guard incursions into Taiwan’s territorial waters to try to increase and normalize management over the Taiwan Strait, whereas additionally making an attempt to intimidate the Philippines to surrender its presence within the Second Thomas Shoal.
Russia, China, and Iran use cyber and disinformation operations to try to intrude in U.S. elections, a transparent violation of U.S. sovereignty and political independence.
Russia is conducting sabotage operations throughout Europe focusing on vital infrastructure to destabilize NATO allies and disrupt their help for Ukraine.
Pyongyang performed 97 cyberattacks between 2017 and 2024 with complete injury of round $3.6 billion.
Welcome to the Grey Zone.
The results of the navy escalation of nice energy competitors could be extreme, and nice powers will go to nice lengths to keep away from direct battle, given the potential for devastating losses. The truth is that this shadowy grey zone has change into an area of accelerating exercise by U.S. adversaries.
What’s the Grey Zone?
The grey zone is the geopolitical area between peace and warfare the place nations conduct actions to advance their nationwide pursuits and weaken their adversaries with out triggering a navy response. Grey zone actions might also set the situations for a future warfare however stay beneath a threshold that might provoke a direct navy response.
Because the U.S. and its allies search to take care of the world order that has been in place since WWII, Russia and China, usually working collectively (and supported by nefarious actors comparable to Iran and North Korea) have sought to decrease the affect and standing of the U.S. in favor of their very own ascent and their authoritarian views.
The grey zone isn’t only one side of nice energy competitors—it’s shortly turning into the dominant area the place that competitors performs out. Grey zone exercise is rising as a result of nice energy competitors is intensifying.
The Grey Zone Affords Distinctive Alternatives
International locations usually want deniability to ensure that grey zone actions to achieve success, even when solely a fig-leaf of deniability in some circumstances. Grey zone actions can span the spectrum of attribution from attributable (overt) to unattributable (covert), or misattributable (false flag).
Advances in know-how, notably in AI, and evolving warfare ways like those we’re observing in actual time in Ukraine, (advances in drone know-how, for instance) are offering new capabilities to nations which have the power to ‘degree the enjoying subject’ in some methods.
AI can be bolstering each the attain and influence of cognitive warfare ways, offering new strategies of persuasion, coercion, and manipulation. And since nations wish to keep away from a expensive warfare, there’s a excessive threshold, in addition to common uncertainty, on how to reply to grey zone actions.
Utilizing these benefits, smaller nations, like Iran and North Korea, can right this moment try to make strategic positive factors in opposition to the U.S. and the West, both alone or in alliance with Russia or China, that might be unachievable in a traditional warfare. The grey zone supplies choices to nations that in any other case could have none.
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There are just a few extra issues for actually understanding grey zone operations.
First, figuring out what’s grey zone exercise versus regular statecraft could be tough and complicated given the often-tense relations between nations. A few of what we take into account as operations within the grey zone could merely be harsh diplomacy. There’s room for debate there, however we must always keep away from the urge to label each aggressive motion our adversaries take as being ‘within the grey zone’.
There may be additionally some thought that adversary actions should be covert or ambiguous to be thought of grey zone actions. That most likely aligned nicely through the Chilly Conflict, however perhaps much less so right this moment.
Some grey zone actions require various ranges of ambiguity or covertness, however not all. Some grey zone exercise is supposed to have an viewers, comparable to China’s aggressive grey zone actions within the South China Sea.
What widespread methods or ways do our adversaries make use of?
There are a number of ways utilized by our adversaries that make deterrence and successfully responding to grey zone actions more difficult.
The primary, “salami ways”, speaks to the usage of small, incremental encroachments or actions that don’t advantage a response, however which might be usually adopted by related small encroachments or actions that in sum, change the established order over time. It’s arduous for nations to know the way to reply to this method.
The second, “fait accompli” refers to bolder actions which might be taken shortly with the calculation {that a} navy response could be too escalatory or dangerous.
Russia probably calculated that its plan in 2022 to shortly decapitate Ukrainian management and take the nation in a matter of days—together with some saber rattling and threats—would have made the takeover of Ukraine a fait accompli that was too dangerous for U.S. and NATO intervention.
Not like in 2014 in Crimea, that technique by Moscow failed in 2022.
One key attribute of grey zone actions is that the worry of the implications of twenty first century battle, and notably battle that may attract nations with highly effective militaries, restrains responses to grey zone exercise.
Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea watch U.S. responses intently, and a scarcity of response or inconsistent responses, encourages extra grey zone motion.
Are we already in a ‘Grey Conflict’ with China and Russia?
Given the rising depth and systematic use of grey zone actions by U.S. adversaries, it’s price contemplating whether or not we at the moment are in a “Grey Conflict” with China and Russia. And is that Grey Conflict being supported by assist from Iran and North Korea?
Contemplate {that a} Grey Conflict would happen fully within the grey zone and could be nicely past the periodic use of grey zone actions by our adversaries to progressively erode U.S energy and affect.
A grey warfare could possibly be outlined because the systematic and coordinated use of grey zone actions by our adversaries to attain the identical strategic outcomes as a traditional warfare, with out the dangers of direct battle.
The query now could be whether or not China believes that it may strategically defeat the U.S. – utilizing Russia as a major surrogate – in order that it may take Taiwan and set up itself because the dominant world superpower with out direct superpower battle.
As an alternative of China utilizing the grey zone to progressively weaken the U.S. and to assist set the situations for a future warfare, the brand new actuality is that the grey zone could now be the place the place the following warfare is already being fought.
That is half considered one of a 3-part collection by Cipher Temporary Knowledgeable and former Assistant Director of CIA for South and Central Asia Dave Pitts, who additionally serves as a member of The Cipher Temporary’s new Grey Zone Group.
Learn the following installment of Pitts’ Grey Zone collection subsequent Wednesday solely in The Cipher Temporary. And be part of Pitts and different Cipher Temporary Consultants in a collection of stay conversations occurring in 2025 led by former Undersecretary of Protection for Intelligence Dr. Michael Vickers.
Subscriber+ Members, test your electronic mail for an unique invitation to register for the primary session on Wednesday, January 22 at 1:30p ET. Not a member? We are able to assist with that.
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