The 2026 stock market is looking a lot like the bifurcated market of 2025

The new year is starting off with the stock market looking as split as it did last year.

The first trading day of 2026 kicked off Friday, with the stock market as bifurcated as it had been in recent months. Though the S&P 500 started the session higher, carried aloft by semiconductors, it has since sputtered and turned lower as the day wore on. The broad market index was last down by 0.1%.

A look inside the S&P 500 shows a major division. Five sectors in the broad market index are higher, led by industrials, energy and utilities that were each higher by more than 1%. Six sectors were lower, led by consumer discretionary and communication services.

The day’s trading is a continuation of a theme that has gained strength in recent months. While the bull market rally of the last three years has been defined by artificial intelligence, traders, nervous tech stocks will find an uphill climb more difficult in 2026, started rotating into other groups.

Indeed, the Nasdaq Composite, known for its heavy exposure toward tech companies, ended last year with two straight months of losses.

Many strategists called for a broadening out of the stock market, with companies more sensitive to the economic cycle taking the mantle from tech to lead the market in 2026. They viewed that as a healthy development to extend the bull market.

But that could mean an advance for the overall index is harder to come by. Broadly speaking, according to the 2026 CNBC Market Strategist Survey, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 will climb by roughly 11% in 2026 — a respectable rise that nevertheless falls short of the advance of the last three.

Others on the Street are more nervous. On Wednesday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted the S&P 500 is expensive, meaning “risks to the index abound in 2026.” The strategist’s 7,100 year-end target for the S&P 500 is among the lowest of those surveyed.

Elsewhere, Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” this past week that the level of optimism on the Street has him nervous for 2026.

“I think the consensus is pretty bullish,” Parker said. “You’re betting on strong earnings growth, and I don’t know if that’s as likely.”

Within the tech trade, chip stocks were the lone bright spot. As of midday trading, Nvidia was the only name among the Magnificent Seven companies to rise, up by 1.5%. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF gained nearly 3%. Micron rallied more than 7%, while AMD rose more than 3%.