Social media posts are claiming to disprove the consequences of local weather change in Antarctica by evaluating the quantity of sea ice extent noticed on a single day in 2024 to the protection recorded on the identical date in 1979. However scientists say these statistics are cherry-picked; they don’t refute the well-observed, continent-wide influence of human-induced warming on ocean and sea ice patterns.
“We’re always being lied too (sic),” says a Might 6, 2025 put up on Threads.
The put up shares a picture juxtaposing two charts measuring sea ice extent. One is from December 24, 1979, whereas the opposite from December 24, 2024.
“Antarctic sea ice extent is 17% greater in the present day than it was in 1979,” textual content beneath the charts reads.
Related claims additionally appeared on different platforms, together with Instagram and X.
Narratives in search of to disclaim the influence of local weather change on the Arctic and Antarctic — the polar areas surrounding the North and South poles — typically depend on sea ice information to make deceptive claims.
On this case, the charts shared on-line come from the Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle (NSIDC). AFP retrieved actual matches for them from the NSIDC on-line archives (right here and right here).
However their side-by-side comparability quantities to “a traditional case of cherry choosing,” mentioned Walt Meier, senior analysis scientist on the NSIDC.
” single days from two years doesn’t give helpful details about traits or the response of sea ice to warming,” Meier mentioned Might 14.
Cherry-picked information
The NSIDC says on its web site that sea ice information has been repeatedly misused to unfold myths about world warming (archived right here). Usually, scientists have a look at decade-long traits for “sea ice extent,” a time period referring to the whole space of the ocean the place a minimum of 15 % of the floor is frozen.
Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle
Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle
Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle
Nationwide Snow and Ice Knowledge Middle
The measurements taken on December 24, 1979 and December 24, 2024 do present a distinction in sea ice cowl, the company mentioned, however it’s a couple of 12 % improve — not 17 %.
Evaluating most different dates would have left a distinct impression.
“From 1 January by means of 13 December, the 2024 extent was beneath 1979 ranges, by over 1 million sq. kilometers at instances,” Meier mentioned, noting that this equates to an space roughly the dimensions of Egypt.
“Solely throughout 14-31 December had been 2024 extents greater than 1979,” he added.
Antarctica’s summer season months, from December to February, naturally present higher shifts of sea ice extent due to hotter temperatures and longer hours of daylight.
Meaning a small change within the timing of the retreat of ice — and when precisely soften season begins — can rapidly and significantly shift its extent in a single December relative to a different, Meier defined.
Throughout the entire of 2024, warming was noticed and sea ice extent measured decrease than the 1979 annual common by about 11 %, in keeping with NSIDC information.
Based on the Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Antarctic sea ice extent hit its second lowest annual minimal in 2024 since monitoring began in 1979, with the 12 months 2025 prone to tie such a document (archived right here and right here).
Potential ‘regime shift’
Dramatic shifts in local weather have already occurred within the Antarctic Peninsula, the a part of Antarctica farthest from the South Pole. The peninsula is warming at a fee 5 instances quicker than the worldwide common — and quicker than wherever else inside the Southern Hemisphere (archived right here).
But continent-wide patterns of temperature change stay unsure, scientists say.
Not like the Arctic, the place sea ice extent has been persistently reducing throughout all areas and seasons since data began, Antarctica’s sea ice lacks an outlined long-term decline (archived right here).
“The Antarctic sea ice is skinny and open to the ocean, so it has way more variability and thus the worldwide warming sign isn’t as evident,” Meier mentioned.
The final decade has proven extra excessive fluctuations, which scientists say may point out a “regime shift” into a brand new low-extent state, probably because of hotter oceans (archived right here and right here).
Each polar oceans are warming, with the “Southern Ocean being disproportionately and more and more vital in world ocean warmth improve,” in keeping with the Intergovernmental Panel on Local weather Change, the main worldwide consortium of local weather scientists (archived right here).
Samantha Burgess of the European Centre for Medium-Vary Climate Forecasts, which runs the Copernicus local weather monitor, added in a February 2025 report: “One of many penalties of a hotter world is melting sea ice, and the document or near-record low sea ice cowl at each poles has pushed world sea ice cowl to an all-time minimal.”
When extremely reflective snow and ice give strategy to darkish blue ocean, the solar radiation that when used to bounce again into area is as an alternative absorbed by water, accelerating the tempo of worldwide warming in a suggestions loop.
Decreased ice cowl additionally has severe and speedy impacts on ecosystems, such because the survival of penguins and their habitats (archived right here).
AFP has debunked different claims in regards to the results of worldwide warming on the Poles, together with right here.
