Estimated CPI percent change from 12 months ago for October was 7.9. Reported real CPI percent for October is 7.7.
The actual index 12 months ago (October) was 276.589. Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is the price for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.
What I wanted to discover is what the estimated index price for a basket of goods was before the actual CPI was released.
Equation: ((7.9/100)*276.589)-276.589 = Estimated Aggregate Goods Index Price
Result: Estimated Aggregate Goods Index Price = 298.439
According to the table here: https://www.bls.gov/regions/mid-atlantic/data/consumerpriceindexhistorical_us_table.htm
The estimated MoM Aggregate Goods Index Price increase would be 1.631 (Oct 298.439 – Sept 296.808).
The actual MoM Aggregate Goods Index Price increase is 1.204 (Oct 298.012 – Sept 296.808)
When viewing previous “actual” MoM index numbers in the table above, the indices #s have been going down or relatively flat sincethe May to June spike:
May = 292.296 June = 296.311 (Increase) July = 296.276 (Decrease) August = 296.171 (Decrease) September = 296.808 (Increase) October = 298.012 (Increase)
Then we spike again from September to October.
Edit: TLDR/Discussion: It appears that there was a relatively dramatic increase in the CPI month over month from Sept-Oct (296.808 to 298.013) compared to previous month’s flatlining or decreasing. How does this result in a positive inflation outlook? And does the “estimate” of CPI 298.439 even matter?
submitted by /u/EmoeyJoey