As China accelerates its bid for hegemonic control over Asia, the Philippines — vastly outnumbered and outgunned in economic and military might by its giant northern neighbour — is desperately attempting to put up a spirited defence of its sovereignty, territorial integrity and national honour in what it terms as the West Philippine Sea and China calls and claims in entirety as the South China Sea.
This David-Goliath fight is not a routine bilateral dispute. The regional order in the Indo-Pacific and, by extension, the world order itself is at stake. The increasing tempo of harassment and browbeating of inferior Filipino boats and ships by the Chinese Coast Guard and Navy in locations like the Second Thomas Shoal of the Spratly Islands are meant to provoke and instil fear in smaller Asian countries.
It is a contemporary manifestation of the Greek historian Thucydides’s Melian Dialogue, where the overwhelmingly powerful Athens issues an ultimatum to tiny Melos to surrender with the diktat — “while the strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must.” Asian countries which do not accept China’s maximal ‘ten dash line’ claims face a stark choice like Melos did — concede to China or fight for existence with no guarantee of external help. Open threats by Chinese Communist Party propagandists that the Chinese Navy can leave Filipino ships “riddled with bullets” and “retaliate without mercy or even sink” them, and taunts that the US “may not dare provoke a military conflict with China” to defend its ally, the Philippines, indicate unambiguously that Beijing operates on the logic of might is right.
During an earlier round of tensions in 2012, China forcibly occupied the Scarborough Shoal, which falls inside the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone and never relinquished it thereafter. Since 2013, China has illegally built artificial islands over 3,200 acres throughout the South China Sea and militarised these acquisitions with weaponry to establish a fait accompli of conquest. For governments in the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Taiwan, no matter whether they adopt a conciliatory or softer approach to China or put up a tougher posture, the reality is China has been unyielding in its hunger for land and maritime resources. Beijing wants to resurrect its ancient construct of Tianxia — a hierarchical world order in which China is at the pinnacle and smaller neighbours have to kowtow before it.
Under President Xi Jinping, China believes that treating neighbours with moderation amounts to showing weakness. So far, neither direct diplomatic dialogue and negotiation with China nor appeals to international law have protected the rights of disputant countries in the South China Sea. In 2016, the Philippines won a case in an international tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which ruled that China’s claims were illegal. This did not deter Chinese expansionism or give Beijing even a minor pause in its rapacious conduct.
Given China’s Communist ideology — which believes in the superiority of material forces — and its self-glorifying nationalism that seeks to impose its will over Asia, the only practical way to block a Sino-centric regional order is through counter-mobilisation of sufficient military might. Washington’s partnerships in the Indo-Pacific do keep some checks on Beijing, but the latter has pushed and poked its way to attaining a predominant position in the region. Indeed, the Quad grouping of the US, Australia, Japan, and India has made bold strides. The AUKUS alliance of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the US, is taking shape. But these formations have not yet produced any direct benefit for the Philippines, Vietnam or Taiwan against a marauding China.
The Quad countries’ official stance that they are not a military alliance and are not aiming for containment of China has not helped the cause of smaller Asian nations. There is a two-way loop of hesitation at play. Small Asian countries are unsure of how credible the US or Quad could be in getting down to real action in the maritime domain. Quad countries also want to maintain ambiguity to avoid getting dragged into a war with China.
Unless this mutually reinforcing loop of hesitation is overcome, China cannot be halted in its tracks. Xi is a practitioner of Mao Zedong’s maxim that “power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. Quad, AUKUS and bilateral strategic partnerships in Asia must have a strong security component. India’s sale of BrahMos anti-ship missiles to the Philippines and its unequivocal “firm support” for the national sovereignty of the Philippines are steps in the right direction. ‘Securitisation’ of regional partnerships is the only hope. Otherwise, China will keep seizing territory and squeezing adversaries until the world order is remade as per its wishes.
Sreeram Chaulia is the author of the forthcoming book, ‘Friends: India’s Closest Strategic Partners’. The views expressed are personal
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