Mint Explainer: Pakistan’s plunge into crisis after attack on Imran Khan

What exactly happened?

Ever since losing office in April 2022, Imran Khan has been a thorn in the side of the incumbent government. He has criticized the administration for its inability to deal with Pakistan’s economy crisis, rampant inflation and a devastating flood that is said to have submerged a third of the country. Khan was participating in a protest march with his supporters when a gunman opened fire on the former prime minister and his entourage. One of Khan’s supporters was killed while he was reportedly hit in the leg with three bullets. The gunman argued that he believed Imran Khan was misleading the people and chose to try and assassinate the leader.

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Khan left the hospital three days later and has accused key figures in the present government, including the interior minister, of sponsoring the attack on him.

How has the country and the world reacted?

Major figures in the government immediately condemned the attack. President Arif Alvi called it a “heinous assassination attempt” while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was quick to denounce the attack. However, the government also rejected claims that it was behind the attack on Khan. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah, who is one of the figures accused by Khan, stated that the government saw Khan as a “political opponent and not an enemy”.

There was also an international reaction to the attack. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that “violence has no place in politics” and called for all sides to cease “violence, harassment and intimidation”. Turkey also condemned the attack on Imran Khan.

What does this mean for the country’s politics?

Pakistan is in the throes of a political crisis. The country’s financial and debt troubles rage on while inflation ravages the economy. The recent floods caused an estimated $30 billion in damages and have created a humanitarian disaster.

However, the country’s political leadership is increasingly divided. The government has had to deal with consistent unpopularity given the country’s economic and social woes. Ever since his removal from office, Imran Khan has exacerbated the government’s problems. He has launched protest marches, has blamed his fall from power on a foreign conspiracy and has taken on the country’s powerful military establishment. Just days after being shot, Khan announced that his protest march on Islamabad will continue. Experts believe that the attack on Khan will only widen the gulf between the government and the opposition at a time of crisis.

How is the crisis likely to play out? What will it mean for the world?

It seems that another civilian leader is squaring up for a confrontation with the powerful army chief Qamar Bajwa who will finish his tenure in late November and is said to have played a part in pushing Khan out of office after he tried to force his choices for key posts in the army. While Khan came off worse in his first tussle with the all-powerful military forces, he enjoys significant popularity among the general public, which may rise after the attack on his person. He is agitating for a general election, which the incumbent government hopes to hold next year.

The present government and the army chief have worked to keep the relationship with the Western world and India on an even keel. Bajwa, in particular, has at least rhetorically pushed for a less confrontational stance towards India and recently visited Washington D.C to shore up Pakistan’s relationship with the US.

For his part, Khan has been relentlessly anti-Western. He took on the US government directly by accusing a mid-level diplomat of conspiring against him. By repeatedly calling Sharif’s administration “an imported government”, Khan has tried to convince supporters of a nexus against him.

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