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The arrival of 9 p.m. ET means that last polls have closed in 15 more states – which in turn means most U.S. states have weighed in on the 2022 midterm election, with only nine more Western states whose polls close later – and nothing has yet happened to change conventional wisdom about the shape of the vote so far.
The latest wave of poll closings include the battleground states of Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New York and Wisconsin. Democratic New York Sen. Charles Schumer has seen his race called in his favor.
Early East Coast bellwether races in areas such as Virginia – the sort of House races that poll watchers use to guess whether the chamber’s story would be “red wave” or “red tsunami” – were pointing to something of a modest red wave, with analysts from both sides of the aisle expecting the House to go Republican.
That would be no surprise as the midterm Congressional vote tends to move against the party holding the presidency (this year, the Democrats).
Control of the Senate – which already was barely in Democratic hands, with 50 senators in each party and a tiebreaker held by Vice President Kamala Harris – looked to stay tight, and might take days or weeks to call either way, with late starts to counting in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and at least the potential for a runoff vote in Georgia that would be held in early December.
The most out-of-the-expected results so far seem to be coming in Florida, which has moved heavily to the Republican side. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis has been called the winner of Florida’s gubernatorial race, making up huge ground in the former Obama stronghold of Miami-Dade County, and Republican Marco Rubio won re-election to the Senate.
As of 9:15 p.m. ET, stock index futures have reversed declines, making a little move higher. S&P futures (SP500) are up 0.06%, Nasdaq (COMP.IND) futures up 0.2%, while Dow (DJI) futures that were down 0.2% are now flat.
Check out more about what to watch in markets as the votes become final.
