‘Lies, damned lies and statistics’ – DA uncovered once more

by Cameron Dugmore

Within the race to swing widespread opinion earlier than an election, it’s solely affordable for the populace to count on that any written arguments offered are factually right. And for those who’re making televised factors on a public stage then it’s much more vital to not cherrypick information that fits your agenda.

And for those who’re flighting a controversial TV advert that includes burning the nationwide flag, after which declare innocence by saying oh, it’s not actual, it’s paper – and look, it’s restored once more, then you’re toying with folks’s strongly held rules and beliefs.

And for those who pop up with a petulant tirade that calls different completely reliable events, which might be conducting enterprise soberly, “mercenaries” then you definately’re kicking nasty mud across the fundamentals of democracy.

And for those who do all three of the above, you find yourself wanting as for those who’re scrabbling for feel-good information, are callous about valuable and unifying symbols and fascinating in a nauseating and undemocratic baaskap.

Africa Test, on Might 7, undertook an examination of factors made on stage by DA chief, Steenhuisen, as follows: “Life beneath the DA within the Western Cape: fact-checking South African opposition get together’s claims about governance”.

Whereas it is a very important instance of the outdated saying “there are lies, damned lies and statistics”, it’s greater than only a data-usage warning about:

1. Making statements when there’s inadequate proof.

2. Utilizing uncooked information to attract conclusions by making hyperlinks that aren’t legitimate.

3. And utilizing an information set that has too many variables (as within the case of employment information, the place the popular definition is “absorption” – see under for extra).

The purpose is that the info chosen, to indicate that the Western Cape solely has a 20% unemployment degree, a) is a dipstick determine on a pattern at a given date, and b) makes use of info that incorrectly excludes people who find themselves unemployed and need to work as being “unemployed”.

The informal reader or viewers member then runs with the 80% “employed” determine of their heads, whereas, utilizing the extra holistic definition – ie, absorption – the determine was 54.7% within the explicit quarter when that info was drawn.

Now when an educational or a statistician wrangles this information, it’s completely different from when it’s used as a large political push. The DA push is that the Western Cape financial system is booming and joblessness is on the lower.

Really, the financial system of the Western Cape will increase, and certainly additionally boomed, beneath an ANC authorities, due to its pure options. It has an accommodating local weather, good farming situations, magnificent scenic options (together with a protracted shoreline and mountains), botanic uniqueness, historic significance, and gives a strategic port on the so-called tip of Africa.

Apartheid spatial malevolence has claimed beachfront and different leafy suburb property for status improvement. This isn’t a consequence of DA work.

What the DA does NOT declare are the crime (homicide, rape, kidnap, theft, extortion) statistics, the poverty and deprivation ranges, the troubling well being (eg TB) information.

Gangs will not be distinctive to the Western Cape however they’re prevalent in sure areas. It’s no good rattling off gangs as a phenomenon if there’s a failure to work them out of the system.

Right here’s an instance of using a dipstick statistic. Nationwide information for the third quarter of 2023/24 reveals that 21 Western Cape police stations seem within the checklist of the highest 30 crime scorching spots for that interval. That’s 70% of the police stations in a 3-month interval which had excessive numbers of crimes reported had been Western Cape police stations.

It’s not 70% of all crimes. However, it’s a undeniable fact that crime lists for the nation will all the time have the Western Cape, and particularly the Metropolis of Cape City, listed. The Western Cape is second solely to KZN as against the law capital in current information.

Crime is just not, because the DA within the Western Cape would possibly wish to current it, a failure of the policing system. Crime is a symptom. It’s a symptom on this case of poverty, unemployment and of a weak training system.

In the midst of boasting about all of the successes within the Western Cape, the DA silence on the deterioration of their very own training system within the Western Cape is a really telling one.

Certainly training is the most effective ticket out of poverty and unemployment and in direction of securing a viable place within the financial system? But this province’s matric move fee has slumped, taking it from its place as high province in 2008 (the primary 12 months of the present Senior Certificates dispensation), to fifth within the nation in 2023.

In truth, its 2023 move fee of 81.54% is just simply forward of the Jap Cape at 81.42%, with solely 0.12% separating fifth and sixth place on this checklist.

In 2008 the Western Cape was 16.5% above the nationwide common and in 2023 it positioned 1.4% under the nationwide common. (Supply: Division of Primary Training)

In a slice of this deteriorating phenomenon, the scenario in regard to passes in maths in faculties in quintiles 1 – 4 basically, and quintile 4 faculties in 2023 specifically, is a trigger for fear. A lot of the faculties in Mitchells Plain, for instance, are quintile 4 faculties. Quintile 5 faculties are positioned within the richest communities.

Supply: DBE figures

In a slice of this deteriorating phenomenon, the scenario in regard to passes in Maths in faculties in Quintiles 1 – 4 basically, and Quintile 4 faculties in 2023 specifically, is a trigger for fear. A lot of the faculties in Mitchells Plain, for instance, are Quintile 4 faculties. Quintile 5 faculties are positioned within the richest communities.

You will need to word the distribution of languages by mom tongue within the Western Cape. The 2023 figures (supply: southafrica-info.com) are Afrikaans 49.7%, isiXhosa 24.7% and English 20.3%. Which means that 70% of school-going youngsters are being schooled of their mom tongue from Grade R/1 to Grade 12.

This could present an inherent benefit for learners on this province. How does this not present up of their outcomes?

The gleeful (all publicity is sweet publicity – we meant to trigger a shake-up) defence by the DA to the horrified response of South Africans to the TV advert is symptomatic of the identical misplaced and dismissive vanity, which permits a nationwide get together chief to accuse different political events taking part in elections as mercenaries, who’re solely in it to put their grasping palms on the money provides within the Western Cape, and are an extra manifestation of a celebration that thinks it should “Rescue South Africa”.

The ANC stands for a programme of stable additional improvement of the native financial system and a focused programme that may enhance the lot of all of those that have been politically uncared for by the expedient DA during the last 15 years.

The injury that has been finished is evident and the trail forward might be powerful, however along with our nationwide departments, we will put the province on a stable footing once more.

* Cameron Dugmore is the ANC chief of the opposition within the Western Cape Provincial Legislature.

** The views expressed right here will not be essentially these of Impartial Media.

Cape Argus

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