There is growing evidence to suggest that a new power dynamic is emerging from capacities in space since exponential transformations in the domain are opening game-changing possibilities. The launch of the defence space mission by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Defence Expo 2022 in Gandhinagar on October 19 may be the right trigger to turn the corner and step up our game in the domain.
In the past, if capacities at sea and proficiencies in the air broke the barriers of geography and opened new highways for travel, commerce and marketplaces, future competencies in space/outer space could make geography irrelevant. Domination of the cis-lunar space (outside of the gravity wall) will give nations access to a unique geography that will transform multiple engines of growth.
By creating infinitesimally low-price points, space-based economies will beat leading, linear, terrestrial economies by many orders of magnitude. In transportation, you could aspirationally travel from Delhi to San Francisco in 35 minutes and transport cargo to any part of the world at record speeds using rockets. In the informational dimension, space-based satellite configurations will power global communication networks without needing cell towers.
Technologies and businesses rooted in Earth offer considerable but linear benefits; space-based models, on the other hand, will confer such exponential prowess to overwhelm and disrupt existing revenue streams and models. Space, therefore, is a domain where the future strategic advantage lies.
Such proficiencies in space will also enable militaries to configure a blanket of power that any movement above treetops will be spotted and eliminated, intercontinental ballistic missiles will appear to be antiques, and directed energy from space will paralyse adversary militaries on Earth in seconds.
Unsurprisingly, leading nations of the world are moving beyond perfections in orbital mechanics about Earth to capacities in the domain of the moon and mars, some even aspiring to create a permanent presence on the Moon by the end of this decade.
The aforesaid should also drive us in India to revisit the utility of space as a metric of total national power and strategic military competitiveness, step up our ambitions, execute the necessary paradigm shift and do so with speed. Speed is key. The time to initiate these conversations and actions is now.
So, what must we do? Here are just a few thoughts.
Conceptually, we need to revisit and put together a comprehensive, integrated vision for Space and outer space and craft a long-term road map that is attuned with our scientific aspirations and services the demands of our statecraft.
Structurally, we need to converge the power and resources of Indian Space Research Organisation, the Defence Space Agency (DSA), the private sector, start-ups, technologists, the public sector to power our capacities in space. In doing so, civil and military capabilities in space must also converge because strategic advantage lies at the cusp of civil-military fusion.
Given the fact that space is now not only an arena of strategic contestation but also one of warfighting, we will need to enhance the survivability and resilience of our satellite configurations considerably (ASAT capacities of our principal adversary are no longer mere technology demonstrators, but a part of operational plans and inventory). Therefore, we must review our satellite configurations regarding orbital densities, satellite size and mission life. To enhance survivability, we must transition from these large satellite configurations to smaller cube satellites. We also need to enhance our space domain awareness and resilience by ensuring a more equitable balance through better orbit postures – a distributed profile across LEO, MEO, geo-synchronous, and highly elliptical orbits over the poles to provide redundancy.
Our DSA will need to transition to a new outlook and work culture – not as a brick-and-mortar entity but as a military start-up that places a premium on creativity and innovation. It will need to explore new talent pipelines with unique pathways for career mobility – free-wheeling techies, specialists in GPS, photo analysis, mapping and geospatial techniques all coming together to grow our strategic–military poise in space. The DSA will also need to develop commercial integration strategies to fill capability gaps in space domain awareness, command and control, big data leveraging, modelling and simulation, remote sensing and quantum computing.
In our ensuing plans for theaterisation, an Integrated Space, Cyber and EW Command must be the first stop. A cross-pollinated combat enterprise that signals our intent to deter offensive manoeuvres in space, one that could debilitate adversary power projection capacities at source while pioneering initiatives into the cis–lunar domain, will mark a transformational step forward in our strategic–military evolution.
There is much to be done in the realm of space partnerships too. Is it time for the India-United States military collaboration to get bolder and travel to the outer heavens? We may consider launching an inaugural India-US joint space military exercise sometime next year. In times to come, we may consider a joint anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test as also wider military space collaborations such as in directed energy weapons, rendezvous and proximity operations (RPOs), co-orbital ASATs (in space microsatellites as a kinetic kill option) etc.
Space proficiency will be a crucial determinant of the pecking order in the global power calculus. Hence, a truly “Vikasit Bharat” will have to be a space power of consequence. It will be wise, therefore, to remodel/intensify our engagement with the long game in space now.
Lt General Raj Shukla retired recently as army commander, Army Training Command (ARTRAC), and is currently member, UPSC. He can be reached at [email protected].
The views expressed are personal
