In New York Governor’s Race, Lee Zeldin Sneaks Up on Kathy Hochul

A Quinnipiac survey this week showed Ms. Hochul up by only four points. Notably, 28% of voters said crime is the top problem facing the state, and 20% said inflation. These are good issues for Mr. Zeldin, who promises to repeal cashless bail, fire rogue prosecutors, and cut taxes to rev the economy.

Liberal states like Massachusetts and Maryland sometimes elect GOP leaders as a check on one-party rule, and Oregon might do it this year. New York did it not too long ago, though it might feel like the political stone age. Mayor

Rudy Giuliani

revitalized New York City by taking on crime and reforming welfare.

Mike Bloomberg

built on that legacy as a Republican and then an independent.

Gov.

George Pataki,

who beat Democratic Gov.

Mario Cuomo

in 1994, held power through 2006. He cut taxes and passed a law authorizing charter schools. Republicans controlled the state Senate for a solid stretch until 2008, then again as recently as 2018.

These weren’t years of Florida-style conservatism in New York by any stretch, but the GOP’s viability as a political alternative meant Democrats had to be wary of going too far left. Democratic Gov.

Andrew Cuomo

ran in 2010 against tax increases and in favor of spending restraint. But as the GOP became less competitive, Mr. Cuomo’s main worry became a primary challenge from the political left.

He and other Democrats responded by moving left on taxes, schools and crime to blunt the Working Families Party and the woke socialists of the

Alexandria Ocasio

-Cortez faction. New York has now become a one-party state that has steadily imposed the priorities of the left on income redistribution, public union dominance, and forbearance for criminals.

Gov. Hochul succeeded Mr. Cuomo after he was run out of town by sexual-harassment allegations. But rather than move to the middle, she moved further left. She has raised no objection to the bill last year that raised New York’s top income tax to 14.78% (the state’s 10.9%, plus the city’s local 3.88%). That’s higher than California, without any of the compensating good weather.

The state’s bail “reform,” along with the rise of progressive prosecutors such as Manhattan District Attorney

Alvin Bragg,

has produced a sense of criminal impunity. The city passed a law to let foreigners vote in local races if they’ve lived here for 30 days. The state budget is double Florida’s, with fewer people. The economic and social damage has become so obvious that even many left-leaning voters are worried.

New York ought to be a showcase of American dynamism, but it’s turning into a warning of progressive decline. Florida has been poaching hedge funds, as the pandemic weakened ties to big office buildings. The right response is to cut taxes, make New York more competitive, allow more charter schools, and reverse the rise of crime and homelessness on the streets. New Yorkers used to brag about living in America’s safest big city, but the headlines these days are about random, unprovoked attacks on subway riders and pedestrians.

Gov. Hochul is boasting about state spending on corporate welfare, but her TV ads are all about abortion and

Donald Trump.

One of her ads features an OB-GYN who says she’s “terrified Lee Zeldin could become Governor.”

But there’s no way abortion law will change in New York if Mr. Zeldin becomes Governor. Democrats currently hold supermajorities in both the state Assembly (107-42) and Senate (42-20), and a gerrymander will prevent major GOP gains. Mr. Zeldin stated the obvious with an ad of his own. “Let me be clear,” he said. “As Governor, I will not change, and could not change, New York’s abortion law.”

As for Mr. Trump, he isn’t on the ballot in November, and he doesn’t even live in the state anymore. Next month’s gubernatorial election isn’t about him, and it isn’t about abortion. It’s about whether voters want to send Mr. Zeldin to be a check on Albany, because they’re fed up with punitive taxes, rising crime, and one-party progressive decline.