Future Outlook: Technical Trends for the Week of January 23 – January 27, 2023

With company’s reporting various earnings and as numerous economic reports are published, our industry experts analyze trends to help you glean what to focus on next week.

Micro NASDAQ 100 Future Weekly Chart

Last week’s candle shows a bit of indecision, as buyers rejected prices around 11300, but couldn’t advance past the previous week’s close, let alone the 200-Week Moving Average at 11832. The MACD histogram is slightly bullish, so should price break above the 200MA, look for resistance at 12100 (the 23% Fibonacci retracement from the highs in October 2021 to the lows in October 2022) and at the 50-Week Moving average (currently at 12575). An area of support appears at 10830 – 10530.

Copper Future Weekly Chart

Continuation buying last week kept Copper above the Ichimoku cloud and the 50-Week Moving Average, an indication of a bullish trend. The 61% Fib retracement level (from the high in April to the low in July) of 4.3248 held as resistance, and could still behave as such, should copper head north. The next resistance could be at 4.6069 (the 76% retracement level). Both the MACD and RSI indicators are showing a bullish state, though the RSI has yet to achieve an overbought status. While the MACD histogram has been bullish since early October, the MACD line has recently turned positive, reinforcing a bullish state. Possible support levels at the 50-Week Moving Average (3.9756 at time of writing) and 3.8688, the 38% Fib level should the current trend reverse.

Natural Gas Future Weekly Chart

Natural Gas continues its slide, though the rate in the fall appears to be slowing. RSI shows an overbought status, though it could remain there for an undetermined length of time. MACD is bearish in all instances – the MACD and its signal are negative, downward sloping, and the histogram is below the zero line too. With price well below the 50-Week Moving Average, the 200-Week Moving Average and the Ichimoku cloud, there’s not much to be said for a bullish case about Natural Gas. Possible support at 2.52 is based on a Fibonacci extension that measured the downtrend from August to October 2022 and extended that off the highs from early December.

Euro FX Future Weekly Chart

After charging into the Ichimoku cloud two weeks ago, Euro FX slows its roll as a slightly-bullish doji is formed last week. Is this just a pause or second candle in a three-candle reversal pattern? Should the reversal happen, look for 1.06855 (the open of the big bullish candle) as a potential downside target.  The RSI and MACD don’t agree with that situation, as both are showing bullish states. Having just eclipsed the 38% Fibonacci retracement level (from December 2020 to October 2022), the next upside target could be 1.11858 (50% Fib retracement level).

Economic Reports for the week of January 23^rd – January 27^th

Economic reports are stacked on Thursday, 8:30 AM; no less than five reports from various areas of the economy are planned for release. GDP is the most anticipated report, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow formula estimating Q4 GDP growth at 3.5 percent.

Tuesday morning sees the release of the Richmond Fed manufacturing Index – which tracks business conditions for the Richmond Fed’s sector. Note that these Manufacturing Indices are regional, so it is not uncommon to have vast differences between one Fed area to another.

Could Mortgage Applications (Wednesday), New Home Sales (Thursday), and Pending Home Sales (Friday) continue the trend of better-than-forecast numbers in the housing industry? Thursday’s Fed Balance Sheet shows the aggregate of all Federal reserve banks assets and liabilities, and should reflect current Fed policy with respect to easing or tightening.

* = Most impactful reports
** = Somewhat impactful reports
^ = Housing-related reports

Date	Economic Reports
Monday, January 23rd	08:30 AM ET: Leading Indicators
Tuesday, January 24th	10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday, January 25th	07:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications^ 10:00 AM ET: State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday, January 26th	08:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods [Advance] @BEA_news 08:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims @USDOL* 08:30 AM ET: GDP @BEA_News* 08:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders @uscensusbureau 08:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index @ChicagoFed 10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales @uscensusbureau^ 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report @EIAgov 11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @KansasCityFed 04:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet @federalreserve
Friday, January 27th	08:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays @BLS_gov 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index @nardotrealtor^ 10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment @UMichResearch** 01:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count @bakerhughesco

Companies Reporting Earnings for the week of January 23^rd – January 27^th

Earnings season is getting busier with over 260 companies reporting earnings this week.

Over one-third of the Dow stocks report Tuesday (five of those companies are reporting before market open!), so please be cognizant that the Dow Futures could see some volatility before the stock market opens on Tuesday.

Microsoft reports earnings at 4:05pm Tuesday, so there could be some movement in both Dow and S&P futures when that report drops. On Wednesday, Tesla reports earnings at 4:05 pm—both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 could see a price reaction at that time.

BMO = Before Market Open
AMC = After Market Close

Be sure to check back weekly and follow us on our social media accounts to receive alerts of our Futures Outlooks week to week.

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