Fed and BoE set interest rates and oil majors report

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Hello and welcome to the working week.

Central banks in the US and UK are both meeting to set interest rates — the Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.

The mood music is that both will keep rates steady. Persistently high inflation and a fragile economy point to the BoE sticking, while Fed chair Jay Powell has cited a “range of uncertainties” and pledged the central bank will move carefully.

BP reports earnings on Tuesday and Shell on Thursday. BP has had a tumultuous few months following reports about chief executive Bernard Looney’s undisclosed past relationships with colleagues. For its half-year results, the oil major reported a 70 per cent drop in revenue compared with last year. Since then oil production cuts by Opec+ have pushed prices towards $90 a barrel, but weaker energy prices are expected to have taken their toll on the company.

Apple reports on Thursday, with overheating issues following the launch of the iPhone 13 in September likely to be in focus.

A clutch of carmakers report, including Stellantis, owner of the Fiat, Peugeot and Citroën brands. The company has been hit by strikes by members of the United Auto Workers union. In its third-quarter results last week, fellow automaker General Motors said the strikes had cost it an estimated $800mn in operating profit since they started five weeks ago.

One more thing . . . 

I always try to include one thing I learned while looking at what’s coming up this week. This time it’s Mischief Night.

Traditionally celebrated in the North of England the evening before bonfire night, and in the US the night before Halloween, it is a time for pranks that border on illegal. Local police forces in some areas often make explicit statements encouraging the public not to take part, but the tradition, for better or worse, still seems to be alive and well.

Jonathan will be back next week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• UK, EY releases report on profit warnings

• Results: Air Canada Q3, HSBC Q3, McDonald’s Q3, Mitsubishi Motors Q2, Pearson trading update, Pinterest Q3, Western Digital Q1

Tuesday

• Q3 GDP figures for EU countries

• Canada releases GDP data for third quarter

• Japan, monetary policy decision

• UK, Simon Thompson, CEO of Royal Mail, steps down as the group races to cut costs

• UK, the cap on bankers’ bonuses is removed

• Results: Anheuser-Busch InBev Q3, BP Q3, Fannie Mae Q3, Finair Q3, Samsung Electronics Q3, JetBlue Q3, Stellantis Q3

Wednesday

• Italy, Fabio Panetta becomes governor of the country’s central bank, the Banca d’Italia, succeeding Ignazio Visco

• UK, Sarah Breeden becomes the Bank of England’s deputy governor of financial stability

• US, Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision

• Results: Airbnb Q3, Apollo Global Management Q3, Asos FY, Aston Martin Lagonda Q3, DoorDash Q3, Electronic Arts Q2, Estée Lauder Q1, Etsy Q3, Eventbrite Q3, GSK Q3, Herbalife Q3, Kraft Heinz Q3, Next trading statement, PayPal Q3, Qualcomm Q4, Thomson Reuters Q3, Toyota Q2

Thursday

• UK, Bank of England announces its interest rate decision

• Results: Apple Q4, Bombardier Q3, BT Group H1, Cloudflare Q3, Coinbase Global Q3, Dropbox Q3, Eli Lilly & Co Q3, Ferrari Q3, Fox Q1, Hugo Boss Q3, Hyatt Hotels Q3, Starbucks Q4, Shopify Q3, S&P Global Q3, Papa John’s Q3, GoDaddy Q3, Moderna Q3, Marriott International Q3, Prudential Financial Q3, Tata Steel Q2 Shell Q3

Friday

• UK, S&P Global/Cips UK services PMI

• UK, the British Retail Consortium publish their monthly footfall monitor for October

• US, Department of Labor releases statistics including non-farm payroll for October

• Results: BMW Q3, Wickes Group Q3 trading statement

Saturday

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• France, the Ballon d’Or award recognising the best male and female footballers of the year is announced

• US, Apple hosts its Scary Fast product-launch event, widely believed to be a new version of the MacBook

• US, voting software company Smartmatic is scheduled in the New York Supreme Court as it tries to bring a defamation suit against Fox News. The company is looking for $2.7bn in damages against the news network. Dominion settled a similar case against Fox in April this year for more than $787mn.

Tuesday

• UK, King Charles and Queen Camilla embark on a state visit to Kenya, their first trip to a Commonwealth country since the coronation in May this year

• Reformation day, financial markets closed in Slovenia and Chile

Wednesday

• UK, state visit by South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol. The premier is expected to be hosted at Buckingham Palace and meet Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

• UK, OpenAI is awarded a Stephen Hawking fellowship at the University of Cambridge, the first time one has been awarded to a group. The company’s founder Sam Altman is set to deliver a lecture after receiving the award

• UN Security Council presidency rotates from Brazil to China until the end of the month

• All Saints’ Day, financial markets are closed in Poland, Philippines and Hungary

Thursday

• Mexico, Day of the Dead parade in Mexico City, financial markets are closed

• UK, prime minister Rishi Sunak attends the second day of the AI safety summit at Bletchley Park. The UK is expecting big companies to attend along with delegations from countries involved in AI development

• UK, Waterstones Book of the Year shortlist

• All Souls’ Day, financial markets closed across several South American countries including Brazil

Friday

• Japan, culture day, financial markets are closed

• UK, Conservative party MP Bob Stewart is on trial charged with allegedly racially abusing an activist outside the Foreign Office in December last year

• US, President Joe Biden hosts the first Americas Partnership for Economic Prosperity Leaders’ Summit at the White House where he will reaffirm US commitment to South American countries

Saturday

• Flag day in Panama, financial markets closed

• Russia, day of national unity to celebrate the liberation of Moscow in 1612 from Polish Lithuanian forces. Financial markets are closed

• UK, Scottish Liberal Democrat party holds its annual conference in Edinburgh. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who spent six years in jail in Iran accused of espionage is scheduled to answer questions at the event

• UK, Mischief Night held in the north of England and parts of the US, where practical jokes traditionally take place

Sunday

• Moldova, local elections

• UK, Bonfire night

• US, New York City marathon

• US, end of daylight savings