The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) approved Xi Jinping as general secretary of the party for a third term. This is unusual as the previous two general secretaries – Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin – both served two terms and then retired. Xi has bucked this trend.
Naturally, the question is – why has Xi Jinping secured a third term? The answer lies in Xi’s ambition for his nation and party. Xi is attempting to achieve the “China Dream” which is the rejuvenation of his country so that it becomes the pre-eminent power in the world, along with an abundance of riches at home. China is aiming to supplant the United States (US) as the lone global superpower, which, according to Xi, is its rightful place in the hierarchy of nations.
In order to achieve this goal, Xi has embarked on two major reforms or changes in China. The first is the transformation of the Chinese economy from a manufacturing giant (factory of the world) into an economy that is knowledge-based and chugs along at fast rates of growth, based on invention and innovation. While China is well on its way to ensuring this kind of change, it still has some way to go before it can claim success. Xi wants to ensure that such a transformation of the Chinese economy takes place successfully and hence he feels he needs more time at the helm.
The second major transformation is to change the Chinese military or the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) into a modern fighting force that can wage wars and win them. Xi has said this several times and we should take him at his word. Hence, the PLA has not merely been acquiring new weapons systems at a rapid rate, but most of them are also made in China itself.
The military-industrial complex is alive and kicking in China. Simultaneously, the Chinese military has been reformed into theatre commands so that it no longer operates in silos but as a joint force. Jointness of operations is the buzzword in the PLA.
To give his military a modern edge, Xi has also set up new commands for rocket forces, cyber warfare and strategic weapons. However, once again, the complete and thorough reform of China’s military is a work in progress, and Xi believes he needs more time to complete this transformation.
It can be seen that Xi Jinping believes he is the chosen one to lead China to greatness. In such a process, taking and getting one or two extra terms as China’s helmsman is no big deal. However, Xi’s ambitions don’t end with having Xi Jinping Thought included in the Constitution of his nation. He wants to be judged as among the greats of the Chinese Communist pantheon, such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. In order to be seen in this light, not only will he have to see through the two transformations successfully, he will also have to reunite Taiwan with the mainland. Hence, with each passing day, the threat to Taiwan and perhaps the risk of a wider worldwide conflagration is rising.
The current superpower, the US, is not sitting by idly. It has recognised China as a peer and a rival and is moving to cut it down to size. The recently promulgated US regulations on the sale of chips and semiconductors to China is one technology-related salvo in this war. The strengthening of US alliances with countries such as Japan, Australia and South Korea must be seen as a move to circle the wagons. Quad is a coalition of like-minded nations which could potentially stop China in its tracks. The so-called Chip Four is another tech-based coalition between the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. This is why Xi, in his address to the 20th Party Congress, spoke of external attempts to blackmail, contain, blockade and exert maximum pressure on China.
What does a third term for Xi as the ultimate leader of China signify for India? The portents are not good. Given our contested border and undefined boundary, Xi will want to make an example of India to show Asia and the world that China is the hegemon in Asia and that other nations better understand and accept this fact. Once China has clear hegemony over Asia, it will begin to challenge the US in other geographies. We should expect more challenges on our frontiers and need to gear up for it. How do we do so? In the long run, there is no substitute fo fast-paced economic growth over an extended 20-25 year period. That will reduce the asymmetry between India and China. An 8% annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate is India’s best defence policy. In the short-run, we will have to balance Chinese power by building strong partnerships with other democracies, neighbouring nations and some others that feel the same way as us. India will need to rise to this challenge through an adroit mix of Kautilyan cunning as well as Arjuna-like bravery.
Gautam Bambawale is a former Indian ambassador to China and Bhutan and a former high commissioner to Pakistan. Currently, he is distinguished professor, Symbiosis International University
The views expressed are personal
