Whenever Rahul Gandhi takes a few steps forward, he faces fresh hurdles. A Surat court’s recent rejection of his request to put off his conviction in a defamation case is a case in point. He can still move a high court or the Supreme Court, but if he fails to get any relief from these, or if the proceedings are protracted, he will remain ineligible to contest in the next election.
Is this why he took his sister Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to Wayana
Wayanad, in Kerala, is the constituency from which he won the 2019 general elections. He was defeated in Amethi, the old Gandhi family bastion. However, things changed after he was convicted in a defamation case by a lower court in Surat last month. The Lok Sabha secretariat swiftly removed him from membership of the House. The question now is whether Priyanka will contest from this seat if the Election Commission chooses to hold a by-election in Wayanad. Although there was talk within the Congress that she might contest from Rae Bareli instead of Sonia Gandhi, Kerala is crucial to the Congress, which won 15 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state. It would not want to lose even one of these seats in 2024. For this, one member of the Gandhi family must represent this state. What will the approach for the country’s largest state and the home state of the Gandhi-Nehru family, Uttar Pradesh (UP) be, in such a situation?
Rahul will undoubtedly have to devise a new strategy to go forward.
It’s no surprise then that the red carpet is now being rolled out to Nitish Kumar, whom the Congress had ditched before the last general election. Nitish had come to Delhi last September, too, hoping to gain the Congress’ support, but he did not get the green signal from the “family”. This is why he and Tejashwi Yadav have publicly stated that they are willing to join efforts for Opposition unity, but the Congress must agree, too. The Congress’s reliance on Nitish will undoubtedly grow as a result of this court decision. Is Nitish Kumar planning to visit other states in the near future?
It would be good for Rahul to take to the streets once more to advocate Opposition unity. There are few such people in today’s politics who, despite being out of power, can apply indirect pressure on people’s representatives for the public good. This is the most effective strategy to stop the autocracy of the ruling elite. Rahul has made similar efforts in the past. You may recall his visit to Bhatta Parsol in UP in 2011. Farmers there were agitated because the state government was acquiring their land for a private company’s power project. Although Rahul’s initiative did not help the Congress, Mayawati lost the next election.
Similarly, in front of the media, Rahul tore up copies of the ordinance amending The Representation of the People Act. It was an attack on his own party’s government. Nothing could have been a bigger insult to Manmohan Singh than the fact that the heir of the same Gandhi dynasty that had brought him to office publicly disapproved of his decision.
Surely, Rahul is aware of these problems, which is why he has started advocating a caste census. The slogan “Jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedari (share according to one’s strength)” was once used to destabilise the Congress. Today, Rahul has chosen the same path. It is evident that Mandal and Kamandal politics will be resurrected in the coming days. Home minister Amit Shah recently said the Ram temple would be completed by January 1, 2024. There is no doubt that all ceremonies, starting with idol installation, would be grandiose to give Hindu religious beliefs a push. For long, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has exploited this sentiment.
Two questions arise here: Will the opening of the “great Ram mandir” in Ayodhya create a wave large enough to give the BJP a third consecutive majority? Or, in the name of the caste census, will there be another storm like the one that previously overwhelmed the Ram lehar?
The topic is made more interesting by the fact that the central government is currently in the hands of Narendra Modi, who comes from a backward caste. He has effectively demonstrated in all previous regional and national elections that he has an incredible capacity to break caste equations.
If Rahul Gandhi is to succeed in his efforts, he must unify his thoughts, words, and actions. The problem he faces now is a lack of control over his speech. His demeanour at press conferences often does not reflect his reputation. He must be aware that neither he nor his party can afford a third consecutive defeat.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan
The views expressed are personal
