Chinese language residents unconvinced by official progress claims

Good morning and joyful Friday. In right now’s publication:

• Chinese language residents doubt official progress claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over lengthy work hours

We begin in China, the place a slew of financial knowledge is due right now, together with GDP figures anticipated to indicate the world’s second-largest financial system expanded at a brisk tempo of about 5 per cent in 2024.

However many Chinese language individuals who work in sectors from banking and native authorities to eating places and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official progress claims — and say present circumstances really feel extra like a recession.

“I don’t know the place this progress is meant to be coming from,” an proprietor of a printing and promoting firm in Beijing advised the FT.

“The authorities can say no matter they need,” he mentioned, suggesting the official knowledge was “blind to actuality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst yr in my 20-plus years of working this enterprise.”

Economists, and even senior officers, have lengthy questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, that are launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics and nearly all the time hit annual authorities targets with uncanny accuracy. Right here’s what they are saying concerning the nation’s progress figures.

• Chinese language property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “indicators of stabilisation” in Chinese language property after weak demand from the nation’s development sector hit the worth of iron ore final yr.

And right here’s what else we’re maintaining tabs on right now and over the weekend:

• Center East: Israel’s cupboard will meet right now to debate the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, whereas a far-right minister has threatened to stop if the federal government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian maintain talks in Moscow, the place they’re anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean assembly: Overseas ministers collect in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the favored Chinese language-owned app is because of take impact on Sunday.

How effectively did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most distinguished start-up growing massive language fashions for synthetic intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese language army capabilities by way of the combination of AI analysis. The beginning-up mentioned it “strongly disagreed” with the US transfer, which it mentioned “lacked factual foundation”. Learn the total story.

• Extra on AI: Donald Trump’s decide for secretary of the inside warned the US may lose the “AI arms race” to China until it boosts technology of power from fossil fuels and stabilises its electrical energy grid.

• TSMCS outcomes: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm has reduce its profitability goal regardless of roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary mentioned the US ought to improve sanctions on Russian oil producers to drive Moscow to barter with Ukraine. The feedback yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil costs, as merchants thought-about the prospect of tighter international crude provide. Right here’s what the Treasury nominee mentioned about China throughout his affirmation listening to.

3. Trump may use the approval of cross-border offers to press international governments into aligning with US coverage priorities, dealmakers and buyers have warned. One European banker mentioned: “The folks on this administration haven’t any compunction about utilizing each lever at their disposal to attain their goals.”

• Nippon Metal: An anti-Japan tirade by the top of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive surroundings brewing within the Trump period, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK international secretary and residential secretary have intervened on China’s planning software for an infinite new London embassy, signalling their help whereas outlining circumstances for the proposed website. Learn extra about Beijing’s deliberate mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist quick vendor Nathan Anderson, well-known for his campaigns towards Adani Group, Tremendous Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his agency Hindenburg Analysis seven years after he based it. Right here’s why.

The Massive Learn

Overseas oil has underpinned China’s financial rise, because the nation constructed the world’s largest automotive trade from scratch, new railways and air journey networks, and 1000’s of skyscrapers. However China’s thirst for crude could also be reaching a peak earlier than anticipated, a improvement that has despatched shockwaves by way of the oil market.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Do Indians work an excessive amount of?: An government within the nation has gone viral for saying staff ought to be within the workplace on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a strong tech elite near Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after battle: The enjoyment sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas battle is blended with grief over months of dying and destruction.

Chart of the day

Native smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to turn into the highest two sellers within the Chinese language market final yr, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker because it struggles to introduce AI options on the mainland.

Take a break from the information . . . 

Right here’s what Asia’s prime artwork collectors are shopping for as collectors descend on Singapore this week for Artwork SG.