Amongst Donald Trump’s many unintended achievements throughout his first hundred days again within the Oval Workplace, one stands out north of the forty ninth parallel: He has given a leg as much as Mark Carney, a political neophyte, to coast to a miraculous near-majority victory within the Canadian polls on Monday. The Liberals have been trailing the Conservatives by 25 factors in opinion polls in November because of former Prime Minister (PM) Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity, however the emergence of an existential Trump problem made Canadians flip to Carney because the caped saviour with the financial wand.
Carney, as soon as governor of the Financial institution of Canada and later the Financial institution of England, now assumes management at a second of uncommon peril and alternative for Canada. America’s renewed belligerence on commerce beneath Trump — the re-imposition of steep tariffs on Canadian items coupled with repeated threats to make it America’s 51st state — leaves Ottawa little alternative however to urgently diversify its financial and diplomatic partnerships. Europe will probably be a pure, if restricted, hedge, and relations with China will stay difficult. However an early and important alternative lies elsewhere: India.
It’s right here that PM Carney should transfer rapidly and with dexterity, to restore a relationship that, whereas commercially buoyant, has been politically frozen since 2023. The genesis of the freeze is well-known. In September 2023, then-PM Trudeau accused India’s authorities of involvement within the killing of a Canadian citizen and Khalistani separatist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The allegation ignited an unprecedented diplomatic firestorm — the suspension of commerce talks, mutual expulsions of diplomats and the near-total collapse of bilateral engagement.
But, fortuitously, commerce thrived. Canadian pension funds and different institutional buyers quietly expanded their holdings in India, which now strategy $100 billion. Bilateral commerce grew steadily. Beneath the political frost, financial pursuits continued to move — a testomony to the resilience of the connection, but in addition to its unrealised potential. The crucial now could be to align political engagement with financial and geopolitical realities.
Carney’s ascendancy is itself a mirrored image of how deeply these pressures have reshaped Canadian politics. Trudeau’s tenure led to acrimony, hastened by the sudden resignation of deputy PM Chrystia Freeland late final 12 months. Liberal fortunes, as soon as in free fall, revived beneath Carney’s stewardship and the specter of Trump’s tariff aggression, culminating in a convincing electoral triumph.
This realignment at dwelling provides Carney each a mandate and a slim window. Canadian public opinion, nonetheless bruised by the Nijjar affair, stays considerably cautious of any rapprochement with India. In Delhi, the scars of what’s seen as an inexplicable indulgence of separatist sympathies haven’t healed both. Bridging this divide would require political creativeness — and a really clear-eyed sense of each international locations’ pursuits.
Encouragingly, inexperienced shoots of diplomatic stabilisation are already seen. Carney’s remarks on the marketing campaign path, pledging to “rebuild Canada–India ties”, have been notable not merely for his or her content material however for his or her timing. Delivered days earlier than the election, they counsel a recognition that the connection with India isn’t non-obligatory, however strategic.
PM Modi tweeted his welcome to Carney shortly after his victory speech on Monday, signalling India’s willingness to work collectively to “strengthen our partnership”. Leveraging this momentum, senior diplomats ought to be posted as excessive commissioners within the two capitals as early as doable. Formalising these postings would sign a readiness to deal with excellent points and switch the web page. Additionally, each side should construct on the latest and ongoing dialogue between respective safety officers and international ministries.
The G7 Summit in Canada this June provides a novel and well timed alternative which have to be seized. Inviting India for outreach periods, as a part of an expanded Indo-Pacific agenda, would sign Canada’s willingness to have interaction with India within the even wider context of consulting with rising economies.
Too typically, Canada-India financial discussions have centered narrowly on discrete commerce irritants or stalled commerce offers. A contemporary strategy is required — one which emphasises broader financial partnership moderately than particular person transactions. Negotiations for a restricted commerce settlement — which had seen significant progress earlier than the diplomatic rupture — ought to be resumed, however with formidable changes to deal with the pressing have to additional range commerce efforts.
Past the restoration of fundamental diplomatic niceties, a broader imaginative and prescient beckons. Latest proposals from assume tanks in each international locations supply a reputable start line. They embrace: Full restoration of diplomatic illustration; a firewall insulating regulation enforcement cooperation from political turbulence; common NSA-level safety dialogues to handle safety irritants; pushing ahead whereas increasing the paused commerce settlement and reviving dialog on an funding treaty; launching a “inexperienced strategic partnership,” modelled on India’s pact with Denmark, to advertise clear know-how and power transition; deepening academic linkages, together with new partnering alternatives for universities, and establishing Canadian college campuses in India; strengthening sub-national ties, significantly with Punjab, to channel grievances into constructive engagement; clear protocols for dealing with sovereignty disputes and political provocations.
Such a complete strategy wouldn’t merely restore relations — it may future-proof them.
The second, nonetheless, is fraught. Diaspora politics have turn into a central irritant. There have to be an unwavering dedication to opposing violent extremism in any type, whereas concurrently defending reliable freedom of expression. In India, recollections of diplomatic affront stay uncooked. The Indian suspicion that Canada tolerates — even abets — separatist activism is unlikely to evaporate quickly. On its half, Canada will anticipate candid safety conversations given occasions of the previous couple of years. Each will anticipate concrete measures, not merely rhetorical reassurances.
Furthermore, exterior forces may intrude. Trump’s instincts towards transactional diplomacy and his open disdain for multilateralism create new uncertainties. Canada’s potential embrace of India have to be seen as a part of a wider technique to hedge in opposition to an unpredictable Washington — and a extra unstable Trumpian world.
But the broader logic of renewed partnership is compelling. In an period of great-power rivalry and protectionist retrenchment, Canada and India share important pursuits: Open commerce, multilateral stability, and a free Indo-Pacific. The values of democracy and variety are pricey to each. Strengthened ties wouldn’t solely serve bilateral prosperity but in addition reinforce the material of a global order that’s visibly fraying.
That is Carney’s burden — and his alternative. His background as a central banker has honed a temperament of warning and precision. But in international coverage, significantly in moments of rupture, warning should generally yield to boldness. Restoring ties with India would require discretion, perseverance, and no small quantity of political braveness. It’s going to require recognising that true sovereignty lies not in defensive postures however in assured engagement.
PM Carney has the mandate and the chance to reset India-Canada ties. It’s time to grab the second.
Ajay Bisaria was excessive commissioner of India to Canada and Nadir Patel, excessive commissioner of Canada to India. The views expressed are private
