The Kommersant columnist outlines what Donald Trump’s return means for Russia and the world
By Sergey Strokan, Kommersant columnist
The inauguration of Donald Trump because the forty seventh President of the USA is that this week’s important information story, not solely in America but additionally in home Russian politics. Although all eyes on that day have been fastened on Trump, it’s telling that he additionally turned the topic of intense discussions on this nation, starting from political circles to odd kitchen conversations. That is no anomaly — it’s completely logical.
For Russia, Joe Biden was not simply one other departing American president. He was the chief who, following Moscow’s launch of its army operation in Ukraine in February 2022, constructed a worldwide framework of confrontation in opposition to the nation. By the point Biden left the White Home, this construction was visibly fraying.
The once-unshakable worldwide coalition supporting Ukraine confronted rising cracks, whereas the West’s resolve to take care of unconditional help for Kiev was visibly waning.
Enter Donald Trump. In Russia, each politicians and most people are consumed with the query: will Trump dismantle Biden’s anti-Russian framework, permit it to break down below its personal weight, or paradoxically, tighten its screws?
The way forward for Biden’s hostile development hinges on whether or not Moscow and Washington can chart a path out of the Ukraine battle that permits each side to avoid wasting face with out feeling like losers. For the incoming Trump administration, it’s crucial that any decision doesn’t seem as an unconditional give up — not essentially for Ukraine, which the brand new president is essentially detached to, however for Trump himself. Permitting Putin to emerge because the winner in a psychological and geopolitical duel is inconceivable for Washington. For Trump, the optics of a private defeat could be completely unacceptable.
How the Ukrainian disaster is finally resolved relies upon largely on the interpretation of the phrases “victory” and “defeat.” Either side should align their definitions and discover political will to declare an answer the place “no one has misplaced to anyone.” That is the place the room for negotiation lies—if the need exists.
However whereas the Ukraine disaster has dominated Russian politics and perceptions of the US since February 2022, it’s crucial to acknowledge that, for Trump’s America, Russia and Ukraine are removed from the central concern. Many in Moscow discover this tough to grasp.
Those that body Trump’s presidency as a grand chess match with Russia are succumbing to naïve delusions. Trump has already signaled that his administration’s main focus is not going to be resolving the Ukraine disaster. As a substitute, Trump envisions a daring session of simultaneous play on a number of geopolitical boards, stretching throughout continents.
Canada, Greenland, the Panama Canal — the record goes on. Trump’s strategy displays each an audacious try to reshape the worldwide order and a rejection of the so-called “rules-based order” promoted by Joe Biden. Trump seeks to exchange this define together with his personal — “Trump’s guidelines” — which additionally stay unwritten however are already starting to take form.
What are these guidelines? They’re rooted in a basic “proper of the robust” framework, the place the sovereignty of 1 nation shouldn’t be inherently equal to a different’s. Power, fairly than norms or equality, will outline the steadiness of energy in Trump’s imaginative and prescient of the world. For Russia, understanding and adapting to this will probably be important in its relations with America, which stays the preeminent world superpower.
But, for Trump’s guidelines to succeed, America should additionally study to respect Russia’s energy — one thing Biden repeatedly did not do. Trump, who prides himself on being a dealmaker, might try to strike a steadiness the place energy is acknowledged on each side.
That mentioned, Russia should not mistake Trump’s rhetoric for a singular give attention to Ukraine. For the Trump administration, the Ukrainian disaster is only one of many items on a sprawling world chessboard. Trump’s geopolitical ambitions lengthen far past Japanese Europe. His focus lies on rewriting the worldwide order in ways in which consolidate America’s primacy whereas renegotiating the phrases of engagement for allies and adversaries alike.
Trump’s return, subsequently, represents a profound problem for Moscow. His presidency is not going to be outlined by anyone battle, however fairly by his makes an attempt to rewrite the foundations of the worldwide order itself. Whether or not this ends in stability or chaos stays to be seen. For Russia, that is each a chance and a problem — an opportunity to say its sovereignty and energy, but additionally a check of its potential to navigate a world the place the foundations are continuously being rewritten.
