Why is Chandrababu Naidu eager to please Narendra Modi?

This statement, made by N Chandrababu Naidu, the chief of Telugu Desam Party at a summit hosted by a media house last April, raised eyebrows in the Telugu states. In May, Naidu also joined “a joyous and proud nation in congratulating PM @narendramodi Ji,” as the Prime Minister inaugurated the new Parliament building last month — an inauguration that was boycotted by 19 other opposition parties.

Part of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) since 2014, Naidu’s TDP severed ties with the NDA in 2018 after he launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Gujarat model’.

Telugu Desam Party (TDP), once an important player in national politics, now struggles to establish its relevance in the political landscape. What changed? Why has Naidu, with his extensive experience in politics, altered his tune?

Having been in power for 19 years and served in the opposition for another 21 years in its four-decade existence, the TDP’s influence in national politics has significantly declined since losing power in 2004.

The TDP first formed a government in 1983, propelled by the remarkable entry of its founder, NT Rama Rao, onto the Andhra political landscape. During his initial tenure, NTR, as the TDP chief was known, shared a close association with BJP leaders AB Vajpayee and LK Advani. He played a pivotal role in facilitating the alliance between the BJP and Left parties, culminating in the formation of the National Front government in 1989. However, their relationship gradually deteriorated after Advani’s ‘Rath Yatra.’ When NTR regained power in 1994, he was friends with the communist parties, not the BJP.

Subsequently, NTR’s son-in-law Chandrababu Naidu replaced NTR as TDP chief and as CM. Leaving the United Front of which he was the convenor since 1996, Naidu aligned with the BJP in 1998 and maintained support for the National Democratic Front (NDA) government led by the saffron party until 2004. However, he opted to remain an outside supporter, referring to his stand as ‘issue-based’. In the 1999 elections, the TDP-BJP alliance, which had a pre-poll understanding, secured an impressive victory by winning 36 out of 42 seats (TDP: 29 and BJP: 7) in Lok Sabha. TDP also retained power in the state. Naidu rose to national prominence during this time not only for his reforms in Andhra Pradesh but also for his influence on the Vajpayee-led NDA government.

However, after facing defeat in both the assembly and parliamentary elections in 2004, the TDP decided to distance itself from the BJP. Despite maintaining this separation, the party failed to make a comeback in the 2009 elections.

In 2018, Naidu experienced another rift with the BJP, primarily due to his insistence on obtaining Special Category Status for Andhra Pradesh. The promise of Special Category Status was originally made by the Congress government during the state’s bifurcation. However, the Narendra Modi-led government ignored the demand, citing the 14th Finance Commission’s recommendations, which, it claimed, abolished the categorisation of Special Status.

Under mounting pressure from the Opposition, spearheaded by Jagan Mohan Reddy, Naidu took the decision to resign from the NDA and withdrew the two TDP ministers from the Union cabinet. In a strong display of dissent, he launched a scathing attack against the Modi government and even staged a series of protests as chief minister to highlight what he deemed an “injustice” by the Centre. Additionally, he formed an alliance with the Congress, a long-standing adversary of the TDP. However, his plan ultimately backfired, leading to bitter outcomes. The party suffered a resounding defeat in the 2019 assembly elections, winning barely 23 assembly seats out of 175. TDP was also reduced to three MPs in Lok Sabha from its earlier tally of 15.

Since then, Naidu has appeared desperate to repair the relationship with the BJP, albeit without much visible success. He seized every opportunity to praise Modi’s policies on various issues, including Covid-19. The party chose to remain silent, unlike other opposition parties, on contested issues such as the farm laws. Naidu dutifully attended a couple of meetings in Delhi where he was invited to share the venue with Modi.

The upcoming elections for the Andhra Pradesh assembly in 2024, along with the Lok Sabha polls, will determine the fate of Naidu and the TDP. The party’s power already saw a decline after the division of the state, resulting in the erosion of the TDP’s support base in Telangana. The new state of Telangana, carved out of united Andhra Pradesh, is now dominated by another regional party, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by K Chandrashekar Rao.

Despite encountering numerous setbacks, Naidu has proven himself to be a resilient leader, unwavering in his pursuit of a comeback. As a self-made leader and three-time chief minister, he has experienced the lowest points in his career during this time as the Opposition leader. However, through sheer hard work and determination, Naidu has managed to regain some of the lost ground. He continues to actively make campaign visits across the state. “Few political leaders in the country have his stamina,” said K Srinivas Reddy, a political observer.

TDP’s decline came at a time when a new politician was finding his feet in Andhra Pradesh — YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, an assertive and aggressive leader, who openly expressed his intention during his padayatra in January 2019 at Ichapuram in Srikakulam district to be in power for “30 years”.

Jagan, as the state’s CM is popularly called, has a litany of cases being investigated by the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Enforcement Directorate. These cases pertain to alleged investments made by various private firms and individuals to the tune of several hundreds of crores of rupees in Reddy’s businesses. These were allegedly part of a quid-pro-quo arrangement in exchange for alleged favours by the erstwhile Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy government. Jagan Mohan Reddy served a 16-month jail time early in his political career during 2012-13 in connection with these disproportionate assets cases. Despite such odds, Reddy strode to power with a thumping majority in the 2019 assembly elections. He also won 22 out of 25 MP seats in Andhra Pradesh. Four years into his tenure, Reddy has proven to be more than a match for the seasoned Naidu in the realm of political manoeuvring.

The 50-year-old Reddy is known for his strong preferences and aversions, and he is widely perceived as employing a brinkmanship strategy since assuming the role of CM. He has adopted a dual approach to secure a lasting political future for himself. Through direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes, he consistently disburses funds to the accounts of millions of beneficiaries each month. Simultaneously, he faces accusations of using the administrative machinery to target his political adversaries with a series of vengeful actions.

During his time in power, Reddy’s party, the YSRCP (Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party) appears to have succeeded in keeping the central BJP leadership content, though Reddy, for the record, has maintained that his party would align with any political group except the BJP.

Even before 2019, it appears that the YSRCP chief had established a mutually beneficial relationship with the BJP. Once in power, the businessman-turned-politician did not prioritise pressing for the Special Category Status that he had passionately demanded as the leader of the Opposition.

On the contrary, his party stood unwavering in Parliament whenever the BJP required votes to pass controversial bills such as the revocation of special status for Jammu & Kashmir. On the eve of the inauguration of the new Parliament building, Reddy advised opposition parties against boycotting the event, stating that it was “not in the true spirit of democracy.”

“Despite the defeat in Karnataka, the BJP still holds influence in the south. Currently, the BJP calls the shots in Andhra Pradesh, regardless of which regional party is in power,” said Suresh Dharur, a senior journalist. This is despite the fact that the BJP lacks any support base in Andhra Pradesh.

The reason, according to political observer S Venkateswara Rao, is that the leaders of both the regional parties in the state are in a vulnerable position.

Political observers believe that the BJP is not willing to abandon the YSRCP as their interests would be better served by continuing to support Reddy. The BJP, however, does not share the same confidence in Naidu, who, once in power, might pursue a different agenda. The BJP also does not welcome the prospect of Naidu playing a role at the national level, as he has done in the past.

“BJP national leadership thinks Naidu is not a dependable partner, considering past experience,” says N Chakravarti, a commentator.

Despite the chilly reception, Naidu is sparing no effort to appease the BJP and Modi. He seems to have made some headway following his recent hush-hush meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi that set off buzz about an alliance. Interestingly, during their latest visits, BJP national president JP Nadda and Amit Shah trained their guns on the Reddy government, suggesting a possible change in the party’s stand.

Naidu’s cautious approach stems from his unwillingness to take any risks. A defeat in 2024 elections will have an impact on the political sustainability of Telugu Desam. Naidu’s son Nara Lokesh is expected to take over the party soon. But if the party fails to achieve electoral success, it would be a tough task for the Stanford-returned young man, now on a strenuous 4,000-km padayatra, to keep the TDP flame alive.

“The 2024 assembly elections are going to be a do-or-die battle for the TDP,” summed up a party leader who preferred to remain anonymous.

Ramesh Kandula is a senior journalist and author of ‘Maverick Messaiah, a Political Biography of N T Rama Rao’. The views expressed are personal.