North Carolina made history — the wrong kind — in its loss to Duke on Saturday and will likely make more — also the wrong kind — next week once the NCAA Tournament field is set.
The Tar Heels lost for the 12th time this season, giving the program the most losses by an Associated Press preseason No. 1 team in the preseason poll’s 61-year history.
That’s not even the worst of it. Selection Sunday will come around on March 12 and unless North Carolina goes on a miraculous run in the ACC tournament, it’s very likely that the Tar Heels will the first AP preseason No. 1 team to fail to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Per ESPN’s Bracketology, North Carolina is on the bubble as a “First Four Out” team.
North Carolina enters the ACC tournament as the conference’s No. 7 seed and will play either Boston College (15-16) or Louisville (4-27) on Wednesday. Because of both teams’ 2022-23 struggles, a win for the Tar Heels still won’t move the needle much when it comes to their tournament chances. A loss, meanwhile, would nail North Carolina’s coffin outright.
The team could potentially get a game against the conference’s No. 2 seed — Virginia (23-6) — in the quarterfinals, where a win would obviously help matters. North Carolina beat the Cavaliers 71-63 on Feb. 25, for what it is worth.
A rematch with Duke would only happen if both teams reach the ACC Championship Game. That’s a lot to ask for a North Carolina squad which has repeatedly failed to get off the ground this season. In Saturday’s home loss to Duke, the Tar Heels fell by a 62-57 score, the second of two low-scoring games between the fierce rivals during the current campaign.
For their part, the Blue Devils avenged (by degrees) their Final Four loss to UNC last spring by sweeping the season series while holding North Carolina under 60 points in both games.
It’s the first time the Tar Heels failed to score 60 points in both regular-season games against Duke since the 2009-10 season. North Carolina is now in danger of finishing a story never told before.
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