Yesterday I puzzled why Ukraine was so hell-bent on defending Severodonetsk, remoted on a deep salient surrounded on three sides and no pure obstacles, when these forces might merely cross the river and maintain out in a way more defensible Lysychansk. Retired Australian basic Mick Ryan contemplated the identical at present, noting that “the tactical and political necessity to carry out in Severodonetsk is questionable.”
Russia’s current successes on the japanese Donbas entrance are, largely, attributed to their brief provide strains. Russia runs into issues when these strains are stretched. That wall of artillery they’ve rained on Ukrainian defensive positions? That will get loads harder when you must truck ammunition to these thirsty artillery batteries kilometers from the railheads that feed the Russian military. Similar with gas.
Dropping Popasna to the Russians wasn’t nice, clearly, however their push from that new salient has already slowed to a crawl. And whereas Russia is gaining a couple of kilometer a day from the Popasna path (not an exaggeration), a tactical native Ukrainian counterattack recaptured some floor—the city of Komyshuvakha immediately north of Popasna:
This doesn’t imply Russia isn’t advancing, it doesn’t imply they may not retake Komyshuvakha tomorrow, it simply signifies that advancing is tough, the preventing is fierce, and Russia nonetheless struggles to increase from its important provide depots. That’s why Ukraine’s insistence on defending Severodonetsk is so perplexing, no matter how properly they suppose they’ll defend it. As I preserve stating, even when Russia takes town and its neighbor Lysychansk, Ukraine has the dual stronghold cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the way in which of any additional Russian advances, each much more defensible by Ukrainian artillery.
Russia’s technique is to take your complete Donbas area, Ukraine’s is to bide time for western weapons (like MLRS/HIMARS) to reach and its reserves to spin up. Like that new Ukrainian tank brigade just lately activated close to Kryvyi Rih, cobbled collectively from reservists, Polish tanks, and Dutch armored personnel carriers.
Ukraine simply declared the brigade totally activated this week, and we’ve been questioning the place it would present up. We all know Ukraine has been reinforcing the Donbas entrance, so the was a logical vacation spot. However this bit of unusual information means that they could have their sights set on Kherson within the south.
Igor Girkin was accountable for Russian-backed separatists within the Donbas in the course of the 2014 struggle, and is a rabid Russian nationalist (Mark wrote extra about him right here). He stays properly linked to Russian and separatist navy sources. And what he’s saying in that tweet is that there was a tank breakthrough close to the village of Davydiv Brid. (Ukrainian presidential advisor Aleksey Arestovych individually confirmed a counter-offensive within the space.) If Girkin is correct, we’re speaking right here, the place the pink marker is:
This city is immediately within the middle of probably the most direct provide strains from Nova Kahkovka additional south to Russian troops which were reaching towards Kryvyi Rih (although observing them over time, they appear extra serious about merely reaching the executive borders of Kherson Oblast, which Russia is attempting to annex).
Russian telegram accounts declare 10-15 Ukrainian tanks made a river crossing into Davydiv Brid, then pushed south down that freeway to the village of Bruskynske, the place preventing is ongoing.
If these accounts are correct, it’s not a very massive assault—in regards to the measurement of a Russian BTG (and we’ve spent all struggle mocking Russia’s under-resourced BTG-sized piecemeal assaults). Ukraine’s model new tank brigade has 100 tanks, plus one other 70 or so armored personnel carriers, so there’s much more fight energy someplace. This may be a small blocking motion, designed to merely minimize off provide strains to Russian forces to the north. However, if we are able to dream, Nova Kahkovka could be a fair juicer goal than Kherson itself.
Nova Kahkovka is the supply of water for all of Crimea, posing a significant downside for Russia if it have been minimize off once more (prefer it was pre-war). Simply threatening the city ought to require Russia reinforce it, “fixing” Russian troops desperately wanted for Kherson’s protection and the offensives out east. Ukraine’s management of Crimea’s water provide could be an enormous bargaining chip in any future negotiations. And relying on whether or not bridges survived any motion, Ukraine would have a western strategy to Melitopol—the logistical hub for provides coming from Crimea to Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine. It will be bye-bye “land bridge,” connecting Crimea to mainland Russia.
This effort is analogous to Ukrainian counter-offensives round Kharkiv within the north, which have put strain on Russia’s provide strains to the Izyum salient. In consequence, Russia has been pressured to peel away forces from Izyum to strengthen their logistical hubs and arrest additional Ukrainian features towards the Russian border.
By all indications, the southern axis is Russia’s least-resourced. If Ukraine will get traction, Russia might want to divert critically wanted models from the Donbas battle, and that, by itself, could be a significant win.
