Donald Trump is already beating Joe Biden — weekend polls from The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CBS News and Fox News all agree.
But the race is close: Trump’s lead is only two to five points, and there are eight months to go until Election Day, plenty of time for new events to tip the outcome.
Unfortunately for Biden, one new development that voters can count on will certainly favor Trump: his announcement of a running mate.
How much difference will a fresh face on the undercard make for the GOP?
In recent decades, both parties have picked VPs to balance the inexperience of their presidential nominees.
George W. Bush in 2000 seemed like a foreign-policy lightweight compared with Al Gore, who had served for eight years as vice president and eight years before that as a United States senator.
So Bush chose former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney as his running mate.
Barack Obama encountered similar doubts about his readiness to handle international affairs in 2008 — so he selected the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the long-serving Sen. Joe Biden, as his partner.
In 2016, Donald Trump had no government experience whatsoever and was a newcomer to the Republican Party itself.
He made a safe choice with Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, a reassuring figure for old-guard Republicans who might still harbor reservations about Trump after the primaries.
Losers’ slates from 2000 to 2016 typically tried to use the VP slot to offer more of what voters were getting from the top of the ticket, sometimes with geographic variety in a bid to win a state that might otherwise go the other way.
What did House Speaker Paul Ryan bring to Mitt Romney’s ticket in 2012?
In theory, Wisconsin — in fact, nothing.
Sen. Tim Kaine added as little to Hillary Clinton’s effort: Virginia was already a blue state, and if Kaine was meant to be more moderate than Clinton, voters didn’t notice.
Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris in 2020 bore a resemblance to John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin in 2008.
Both were chosen for diversity: in Palin’s case not only as a woman but as a conservative outsider paired with the experienced and maverick-y John McCain.
Harris had race and sex to commend her — and little else.
Her background as California’s attorney general hardly endeared her to progressives, and her stage presence endears her to no one.
She satisfies Democrats’ need for somebody who isn’t white and isn’t male.
Beyond that, she provided Biden with insurance that in his advancing years he wouldn’t be passed over in favor of a younger, more popular VP once 2024 came around.
Trump doesn’t have to worry about another nomination if he wins this year, and as a former president experience is the least of his needs in a running mate.
He must think seriously about a successor, particularly if he continues to face legal troubles after a second term.
A successor with the power to pardon is Trump’s last defense against progressives’ lawfare.
Would he risk his freedom on a running mate from the Nikki Haley or Mike Pence wing of the party?
No — Trump won’t try to “balance” his ticket by picking anyone from a rival Republican faction.
Loyalty is the top requirement.
After that, the criteria are likely to be diversity and geography — the considerations least successful in recent selections, going back to Walter Mondale’s choice of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, when their ticket went on to win just one state and the District of Columbia.
South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and New York Rep. Elise Stefanik seem to be the women highest on Trump’s short list.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is Trump’s likeliest black running mate, though he might wonder if Scott would risk his own political capital four years from now to rescue him from legal peril.
Noem, Stefanik and Scott all hail from solidly red or blue areas — none would automatically shift a state.
Would a white male like Sen. J.D. Vance do so?
Vance’s Ohio is reliably in Trump’s column, but if Vance can appeal to blue-collar voters in neighboring Pennsylvania or other Rust Belt battlefields, he’ll help rebuild the map that won Trump the White House in 2016.
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are in play, along with Georgia and Arizona.
Suburban women have a powerful say in all those places, and even a marginal increase in black support for Trump — or drop in enthusiasm for Biden-Harris — could be catastrophic for Democrats.
Small though the influence of a VP pick usually is, Trump has several ways to turn the right choice into a winning hand.
Biden has no choice: His is the ticket of 2020, four years worse for wear, while Trump heads into their rematch with a new element on his side.
Daniel McCarthy is the editor of Modern Age: A Conservative Review.
Twitter: @ToryAnarchist
