Once I first wrote concerning the city of Popasna on April 16, I had completely no concept that this was an essential navy stronghold for Ukraine, or that it could change into the main focus of Russian consideration for the next month. I stumbled throughout the city in a listing of places, regarded it up the place everybody seems to be issues up—Wikipedia—and realized it had an attention-grabbing historical past. Popasna had been captured by Russian forces in 2014, recaptured by Ukrainian forces simply three months later, and stayed in Ukrainian palms when a neighboring city, Pervomaisk, was captured a second time by pro-Russian separatists.
I then took the subsequent step, pulled these two cities up on Google Earth, and began taking a look at that small strip of land that separated them. Certain sufficient, what had clearly been unremarkable farmland eight years in the past, had since then been crisscrossed by trenches and dotted with bunkers. The photographs have been ok that you might even see how the brief stretch of highway separating Popasna and Pervomaisk was dotted by a sample of mines.
It was straightforward to think about a sure tragic romance round these locations. Certainly there have been households who lived in Popasna after forsaking mother and father or grandparents in Pervomaisk. There will need to have been sweethearts severed by the road operating between these cities. Associates and enterprise companions might look out a window and see the place they used to satisfy for espresso on Tuesdays, or go to church on Sundays. Solely now that place was on the opposite facet of mines, trenches, and machine gun nests.
Since 2014, the inhabitants of Popasna, which had been 20,000 earlier than the primary Russian invasion, had declined. There have been solely a handful of functioning shops remaining within the city and an unknown, however a lot smaller, inhabitants when the second invasion started. Nonetheless, I had no concept how fortified the city had actually change into, or what would occur once more, and once more, and once more over the next weeks as Russia and Ukraine engaged in what I cheekily named the Popasna Polka.
Because of the deep, closely fortified bunkers Ukraine had in-built and round Popasna, they might draw Russian forces into town, then assault them with artillery stored nicely again from the road. That tactic accounted for the repeating sample wherein Russian forces introduced that they had entered Popasna, then introduced that that they had entered Popasna, then introduced that that they had entered Popasna.
However when Russian troops entered Popasna on Could 6, there have been few Ukrainain forces left to oppose them. You might see this coming. For the higher a part of a month, Russia had 7 Battalion Tactical Teams concentrating their fireplace on Popasna. When Russia started withdrawing forces from Mariupol, lots of those who left the ruined metropolis got here to hitch these different BTGS in battering this a lot smaller city.
On NASA’s FIRMS fireplace map, you might watch Popasna being slowly decreased. At first Russia was firing throughout town. Then it was firing into the west and the north. The final two days earlier than Russia rolled in to Popasna in drive, the entire artillery had been directed at just some remaining blocks on the marginally greater floor on the north finish of the city. Reviews from evacuees who escaped the city in its final days acknowledged that there was not a single constructing, wherever within the city, nonetheless standing.
Although Chechen forces at the moment are engaged in utilizing Popasna for what appears to be their precept position within the battle—making propaganda movies wherein they chuckle over the thought of how merciless they are often to Ukrainians—indications are that each one however a handful of fighters left the ruins of the city on Friday night because the barrage of shells lastly compromised the final bunkers. Surviving Ukrainian forces withdrew to the north and the west of Popasna, to positions that native officers describe as “ready fallbacks.” Nonetheless, it is not clear the place these positions could be.
I had no concept after I began writing about it, however the motive Popasna was so essential was that, on this a part of the sphere, not less than, it held the southern flank. Having turned that flank, Russian forces now threaten forces alongside the road that runs towards Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, that are already being pressed from the north and east.
Perhaps Ukraine does have well-prepared fallback positions that can make Popasna, for all the trouble that Russia put into it, simply two miles of highway gained at a very excessive value. Perhaps the elevated presence of Western weapons on this a part of the battlefield will stop Russia from having the ability to exploit this breakthrough. Perhaps Russia’s personal repeatedly demonstrated incompetence will probably be sufficient.
There’s not likely any proof that Russia did something new at Popasna. It didn’t manage a big scale motion or a swift operation utilizing mixed arms. It simply pounded with artillery till there was nothing left to pound, which has been the Russian tactic going again by many years.
However there are positively causes to be involved about what’s happening on this space, issues that solely elevated on Sunday with Russia’s seize of the city of Nyzhnie, about 20 kilometers northeast of Popasna.
Kharkiv
If what’s taking place at Popasna is all unhappy information, what’s taking place north of Kharkiv is something however. Although there have positively been some reversals — Ukraine misplaced a number of autos in what appears to been ill-considered try to drive into first Kozacha Lopan then a few miles south close to Tsupivka—every little thing else taking place within the space appears to be falling within the path of the parents waving blue and yellow flags.
Russian forces are reportedly digging in close to Kozacha Lopan, which is lower than 4km from the Russian border. The intention seems to be to guard the massive border crossing just some kilometers to the east at Nekhoteevka. This crossing grew to become well-known early within the battle as satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed Russian convoys passing by on their solution to assault Kharkiv. Now Russia appears to be anxious to maintain Ukrainian forces again from the world simply in case they get a style for going the opposite path—the Russian base at Belgorod is simply 30km up the highway. And actually, that must be tempting.
In any case, Nekhoteevka has principally misplaced its worth as a spot to convey Russian materiel into Ukraine, as Ukraine now blocks each route coming from that crossing.
What continues to be most puzzling, and attention-grabbing, is what’s happening alongside the western financial institution of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces raced into place at Staryi Saltiv final week, stunning observers — and the Russians. From there, they shelled the city of Rubiznhe to the north, the place a bridge crossed the river. Nonetheless, that bridge has now been blown, reportedly by Russian forces. Which makes the newest NASA FIRMS information very attention-grabbing.
Only for this map, I’ve added some fireplace icons to indicate areas the place NASA FIRMS information signifies scorching spots on Could 6-7. Two of those are west of Staryi Saltiv, the place Ukraine seems to be working to clear cities alongside one other freeway and probably lower off Russian forces who nonetheless seem like occupying the world round Petrivka.
However one other huge space of fireplace is now within the space east of Starytsya, nicely to the north of earlier exercise and fairly near the Russian border. What’s at Starytsya? Certainly one of two bridges throughout the Siverskyi Donets on this entire space of Ukraine nonetheless believed to be intact.
Simply because it did at Rubiznhe a number of days in the past, Ukraine seems to be pounding the world across the bridge. Additionally price noting, Ukraine now not appears to be hitting positions round Rubiznhe or the bridge to the east, each of which have been shelled earlier within the week.
Does this imply that Ukraine is racing up the west facet of the river, and is now closing on Starytsya? That’s fully unknown.
What is obvious is that Russia’s essential website for transferring males and tools into Ukraine at this level is lower than 10km east of Starytsya at Vovchansk. But when Ukraine desires to achieve Vovchansk quickly, they should take an intact bridge.
Izyum
What’s taking place at Izyum continues to be fast paced and sophisticated. As was mentioned on Friday, Ukraine appears to be working primarily within the space instantly northwest of town, the place a posh community of roads supplies entry that’s troublesome to chop off and forests present good cowl. Fires inside that forest make it troublesome to inform the place there are areas of contemporary firing, and simply areas of plain outdated fireplace.
In any case, we will hope that is true.
