India’s Agni-5 test of a multiple-warhead ballistic missile places the country in a league of powers with only the US, UK, Russia, China and France as other members. Importantly, its success steps up India’s deterrence at a time China has openly begun to pursue a policy of power projection beyond its borders. Though not strictly an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) of the order possessed by the Big Five that can hit targets as far as 15,000km, its 5,000km-plus range brings the farthest parts of China and even some of Europe within our strike radius. This will raise the stakes for Beijing should it undertake any military misadventure against our vital interests, as nuclear-armed New Delhi could respond with greater force. This is not just another incremental step-up over previous versions of the Agni missile system. What makes this multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) stand out is its ability to hit many targets spread across vast distances with high accuracy, as a single carrier can launch several sub-missiles, each with its own guidance system. Such a splintered strike is hard for enemy defence shields to block. Since each sub-rocket could be nuclear-tipped, its threat magnitude would significantly alter an adversary’s calculations. As a result, it enhances India’s strategic deterrence capacity. New Delhi has not revised its “no first use” nuclear doctrine since it was adopted in the 1990s by the A.B. Vajpayee government, but that’s all the more reason for a tougher retaliatory stance.
Beijing, of course, has been watching closely. Duly alerted by a notice issued by India—a standard protocol for such a missile test so that it isn’t mistaken for an attack—China reportedly had a research vessel stationed off the Indian coast to monitor the MIRV test’s progress. Our northern neighbour has in recent years been expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean region as part of an encirclement game that is not lost on our own strategic planners. Recall the episode of a spy ship that had docked at a Sri Lankan port under Chinese control. Just this year, Beijing has moved to draw the Maldives into its embrace. Earlier, it had set up a military base in Djibouti on the Horn of Africa. It has also been pushing for access to the Arabian Sea via Pakistan, which remains a US client-state on paper but has “all weather” ties with China that could assume a geo-strategic edge. Throw in China’s “no limits” relationship with Russia and the two major wars being fought right now, and the global matrix looks less benign than it did just half a decade ago. Under Xi Jinping, the People’s Republic has made no bones about exercising clout in ways that others would find unacceptable. And for it to reshape the world order by moving the fulcrum of power away from the West, it would need to dominate Asia first. As India would stand in the way of that ambition, Beijing’s disposition towards us could turn increasingly hostile.
Increased border friction has marked India’s recent relations with China and we can expect more pressure tactics in time to come. A seizure by India of a Chinese shipment to Pakistan of dual-use technology with nuke potential adds to Beijing’s record of anti-India manoeuvres. New Delhi will need to be watchful. Its MIRV test signalled a will to keep up with modern weaponry. But missile technology keeps moving. To secure our strategic autonomy, we may need to counter China’s hypersonic rocket exploits that made the West sit up. In this arms race, being at the cutting edge matters.
