Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book “Whatever It Takes,” the story of a fan making it into the NFL.
You don’t need to be a scout to know Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is having a stellar season. His numbers (71.2 completion %, league-leading 298.9 yards per game passing), however, only tell part of the story of a player who’s among the favorites for NFL MVP.
Before we home in on his strengths, I want to highlight his few deficiencies.
Only New England, Buffalo and Philadelphia have managed to slow Tagovailoa and the Dolphins (5-2) this season.
In a 24-17 loss to Miami, the Patriots did so by attempting to take away what Tagovailoa loves to do most: attack the intermediate-to-deep route levels. New England held him to 249 yards passing, although he did complete 70 percent of his throws. Credit Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, who’s a defensive mastermind and has a deeper familiarity with Tagovailoa’s game than most of the rest of the NFL.
In wins over the Dolphins, the Bills and Eagles got right in his face and flat-out bullied him. Philadelphia limited him to a season-low 216 yards passing. These teams have better defensive personnel — especially the Eagles — than most of the rest of the league.
Other than the aforementioned teams, only Tagovailoa has slowed Tagovailoa, who leads the league’s top-ranked offense (462.3 yards per game). He relies more on natural arm strength than his footwork, and he sometimes locks in on receivers and telegraphs throws. These deficiencies have led to six interceptions and 20 additional defended passes (2.86 avg. per game).
Tagovailoa’s strengths, however, far outweigh these deficiencies. He relentlessly attacks secondaries and spreads the ball around to his receivers. He exploits opponents with a heavy dose of signature slant-pattern throws and pinpoint accurate passes along the sidelines.
I can’t say his success is surprising. In the summer of 2021, I cued up hundreds of Dolphins plays from the season prior. Despite finishing 2020 ranked 26th in QBR (44.8), Tagovailoa clearly had a high ceiling.
“The Dolphins have their best QB since Dan Marino,” I wrote in my analysis then.
This season, I evaluated every snap from Tagovailoa’s games against the Chargers (Sept. 10), Patriots (Sept. 17), Broncos (Sept. 24), Bills (Oct. 1), Giants (Oct. 8), Panthers (Oct. 15) and Eagles (Oct. 22). Here’s why Tagovailoa is so successful:
1. Aggressive nature
Tagovailoa wants to rip the defense’s throat out through the air, which is evidenced by a league-leading 9.1-yards-per-pass average. He’ll take the little dump-off passes because his stellar receivers — including Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, two of the league’s fastest — can gouge opponents with yardage after the catch. Tagovailoa, however, prefers going up top. He leads the league with 85 passes over 10+ yards and is second in overall passing yardage (2,092).
2. Anticipation
Tagovailoa is extremely instinctual, which allows for fancy ball-handling, the ability to avoid pass-rushers while keeping his eyes downfield and the uncanny sense of knowing where his receivers will be before they even get there.
