Early days of the conflict, probably the most movies confirmed anti-tank missiles like NLAWS, Stugna-P, and Javelins taking out Russian armor and autos. Then there was the “autos caught in mud” part. Finally, that gave approach to provide convoy ambushes. Then artillery strikes, and extra artillery strikes. A handful of “industrial drone drops grenade” movies sneak via, however principally artillery. Plenty of artillery strikes. Till … now.
We nonetheless have loads of artillery movies. That is an artillery attrition conflict, with the skies over Ukraine swarming with drones documenting all of it. New Western artillery programs, just like the M777, French Caesar, and Dutch/German Panzerhaubitze 2000 are handled like celebrities on the crimson carpet on the Oscars. However over the previous few weeks, we’re seeing increasingly more dramatic destruction of Russian ammunition depots.
June 25, Izyum, Kharkiv Oblast
This was reportedly the headquarters of Russia’s twentieth Military, and Russian Telegram channels reported a number of officer casualties. Within the video, we see three pontoon bridging autos, a minimum of two infantry combating autos, a Tigr armored jeep-style infantry automobile, and a number of requisitioned civilian autos. Not a foul haul for a single strike.
The shortage of burn marks and shrapnel injury to the autos undoubtedly factors to HIMARS rockets. In my day, the rockets carried cluster munitions, now banned by worldwide treaty (although the U.S. and Russia are usually not signatories). As an alternative, these rockets carry 180,000 small non-explosive tungsten balls, which detonate above the goal and scatter the pictures like an enormous 360-degree shotgun.
It really works finest in opposition to flippantly armored autos and personnel. You’ll be able to even see one among them right here:
On this case, a mushy goal, a single rocket with 180,000 of these tungsten balls seemingly did as a lot injury as a whole pod of six excessive explosive rockets would’ve managed. There’s a unique position for these. (Exhausting targets, like hardened defenses, financial infrastructure like refineries, and so on.)
June 25, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, 68 kms from entrance strains
We don’t know what hit this depot. GMLRS can hearth precisely to 84 kilometers (past its official rated vary), and might even attain additional however not as precisely. This may be Tochka-U ballistic missiles, Ukraine has been aggressively launching these previous couple of weeks. The goal above would possibly’ve even been these guys:
It’s nearly as if Ukrainian excessive command determined they didn’t must husband these long-range sources anymore with HIMARS in theater, and will blast off their remaining provide. These have a spread of 120 kilometers.
June 23, Kadiivka, Luhansk Oblast, 40 kilometers from entrance strains
Extra Tochka-U missile handiwork. That may be a severe cook-off. Kadiivka is east of Popasna, and this was seemingly supplying that whole advance. Stories declare that Russia has needed to reposition its command and logistical hubs additional away from the entrance.
June 22, Kyselivka, Kherson Oblast, on the entrance strains
No want for lengthy vary munitions right here. Kyselivka is true on the entrance strains, with conflicting experiences over who controls it. The depot was seemingly struck as Ukrainian forces contested the settlement.
June 19, Voskresenka, Zaporizhia Oblast, 15 kilometers from the entrance
I confirmed distance, so sure, this might undoubtedly be in vary of M777 howitzers, which is 25 kilometers. For comparability, Russia’s D20 towed howitzer, additionally utilized by Ukraine, has a spread of simply 17 kilometers. (Different programs have additional vary, however that is the apple-to-apple comparability.)
June 17, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, 52 kilometers from entrance
That is undoubtedly a Tochka-U missile. HIMARS hadn’t been activated when this assault occurred. What’s thrilling is that HIMARS will have the ability to hit targets like this repeatedly, as an alternative of forcing Ukraine basic employees to debate whether or not a goal is well worth the funding of a treasured limited-supply Toschka-U. (Ukraine reportedly had 500 initially of the conflict.)
June 16, Krasny Luch, Luhansk Oblast, 60 kilometers from the entrance
The on-the-ground footage of that assault is apocalyptic, here and here. Once more, HIMARS will make targets like this one much more commonplace. Russia should transfer provide depots additional behind entrance strains, exacerbating their logistical challenges. Keep in mind, all of their latest Donbas positive aspects have are available in territory hugging their long-held proxy territory. Their push towards Bakhmut, away from their pre-war borders, has stalled.
June 16, Khrustalnyi, Luhansk, Oblast, 50 kilometers from the entrance
Extra Tochka-U handiwork.
It’s actually curious—did Ukraine’s intelligence get that significantly better the previous couple of weeks, all of a sudden adept at discovering these provide depots, or is it actually a operate of “HIMARS/MLRS are coming, we are able to now hit these targets with missiles we had been saving for a wet day.”
Regardless of the purpose, I like this new style of conflict video. Russia already struggles to advance quite a lot of hundred meters per day. Their challenges will solely multiply as Ukraine systematically wipes out their logistical and command and management facilities.
One final notice, Ukraine’s Ministry of Protection put out a video of HIMARS’ first mission:
Kinda cool! The launch mechanism is identical as within the M270 from again in my day. The pc is much extra superior than no matter piece of crap 80’s period “laptop” we had again then.
That is the second video we’ve seen of HIMARS launches and each of them had been at night time. Ukraine clearly values these too extremely to danger having one noticed by Russian drones. So for now, it seems like they’ll do all their work at night time. This might be nice when hitting provide depots, command and management facilities, and static defenses. It’ll be much less useful when making an attempt to hit Russian convoys on the transfer, which might be a unbelievable use of those beasts. We’ll see if that modifications down the highway.
