Red Tide Cresting as Election Day Arrives

As Election Day dawns, and hundreds of state and local candidates facing the voters hold their breath, it is undeniable that the ruling Democrats in Washington face a perilous outcome, driven both by historical trends and self-generated crises. Only the degree of Democratic damage has yet to be determined. Both the party’s governance over the last two years and its widely panned campaign messaging centered around MAGA Republicans as a threat to democracy itself, strikingly unresponsive and out of touch with voters’ deepest concerns, will meet with a day of reckoning. This much is clear: There has been ongoing and unmistakable movement on the ground away from the progressive left over the last month of a truly dismal two-year run for the party in power.

The House of Representatives — where the big advantage rolled up by Democrats in 2018 narrowed substantially in 2020 when the GOP picked up 15 seats while losing none — has been all but conceded to Republicans. That by itself is not a shocking development given that the last four midterm elections, and the great majority of them over time, resulted in the out party gaining substantial ground. But that pattern has been exacerbated by rising crime, chaos on the border, and an economy that has voters across the spectrum more worried about the cost of living and the likelihood of a recession than at any time since the crash of 2008.

The real contest for power is in the Senate, where, until recently, any of three outcomes — a GOP takeover, another 50-50 split, or a true Democratic majority — seemed within the realm of possibility. But the momentum and the odds now tell a different story. In an upper chamber now evenly divided, the Democrats have just one true opportunity to flip a Republican seat: in Pennsylvania, where progressive John Fetterman is trying to hang on for dear life after seeing a huge lead evaporate in the wake of a debate meltdown which makes the prospect of him actually functioning as a senator seem dubious at best.

Election Day Math Doesn’t Add Up for Democrats

But worse yet for Democrats is that, while they have but that single seat they can realistically hope to flip, the Republicans have four. In Georgia, Herschel Walker has recovered well from early stumbles with — in contrast to Fetterman — a reassuring debate performance, which appears to have opened up for him a slight lead over incumbent Raphael Warnock. Adam Laxalt has received high marks for his campaign in Nevada and holds at least a two- to three-point lead over incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Blake Masters in Arizona is likely to benefit from the late withdrawal of the Libertarian Party candidate and is coming up hard from the rear in a neck-and-neck battle with incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly. And Don Bolduc has sailed from way behind into a virtual tie with incumbent Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire.

But to show you just how ominous the outlook is for Democrats, we’re even hearing rumblings — and seeing poll numbers to the same effect — that one of the progressive old guard, Patty Murray, is in serious trouble in her bid for a sixth term, in Washington State of all places.

The same red tide that will sweep over the House and likely the Senate is also on display in gubernatorial races in key battleground states, where Republicans are vying for control of the levers of power, especially over election law. Ron DeSantis in Florida, Greg Abbott in Texas, and Brian Kemp in Georgia have been cruising to re-election. Kari Lake appears headed for victory — and future stardom — in Arizona. And in a shocker almost as head-spinning as Murray’s struggle on the West Coast, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has been forced to call in the “heavy artillery” — Hillary Clinton and VP Kamala Harris — in a desperate attempt to hold off surging Republican Lee Zeldin after blowing a massive midsummer lead.

Strangely enough, if the Democrats have anything to be thankful for politically, it would be the Supreme Court. It was the high court decision overturning Roe v. Wade that pumped life into deflated and dispirited Democrats over the summer, and though abortion has ultimately been overshadowed by quality-of-life concerns that almost always carry the day, that one issue will still limit the extent of Democratic damage, with women registering to vote at a higher rate than before the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling.

Kevin McCarthy (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

But signs of despair are everywhere in blue nation. Rudderless and devoid of leadership, Democrats scaremonger about the mortal threats to democracy if Republicans gain control of the legislature, which has not moved the needle in their direction even an inch and may in fact have achieved the opposite. Voters may be fickle, but they’re not stupid. One survey after another shows that people see this over-the-top attack by Joe Biden and his fellow travelers against their enemies for exactly what it is: utter desperation, the death pangs of a party about to go down to punishing defeat.

And when you consider how far above and beyond the call of duty Democrats have gone in defaming and kneecapping Donald Trump and Republicans over the last half-dozen years, the sure-to-be new Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will show little mercy for the new House minority. And Mitch McConnell (R-KY), if elevated once more to Senate majority leader, will do everything in his power to block the judicial nominees brought forward by a significantly weakened Biden, who will be left with only his pen and phone, isolated, alone, and drained of power in domestic affairs beyond unilateral executive action.

Thousands of slanderous accusations have been aimed at the 45th president and conservatives, as the nation has been forced to endure the rank condemnation of essentially half the country by an old, tired, and weak president and his cronies on the left. But it is a couple of particularly vile statements made on MSNBC recently by a former head of the Republican National Committee (RNC), now part of the infamous Never Trump movement, and a “respected” historian that best exemplify just how far the establishment power elite in this country is willing to go to condemn those who dared pull the lever for Trump.

In describing prospective Speaker McCarthy as a sellout to the MAGA base of the party, Michael Steele, former RNC head, stated, “Kevin has decided to make his bed and is prepared to lie down with the lice, the fleas and the blood-sucking ticks.” And Michael Beschloss, author of nine books on the presidency, warned that, if Republicans gain control of Congress, it will be apocalypse now: “Fifty years from now, if historians are allowed to write in this country and if there are still free publishing houses and a free press — which I’m not certain of — a historian will say what was at stake this week was the fact whether we will be a democracy in the future, whether our children will be arrested and conceivably killed.” As famed attorney Jonathan Turley tweeted in response, “so much for gas prices. The choice is now voting democratic or lining up your children in front of a firing squad.”

This is what it has come to as the political and media establishments prepare to see their years-long quest to fundamentally transform America — and vanquish all effective opposition — come crashing down. The ascendant progressive wing of the Democratic Party has put the nation through the wringer. It began in earnest with the riot-torn summer of shame in 2020. Today, it will end.