© Reuters. Prominent Apple analyst estimates 160k-180k Vision Pro units sold in the first weekend
Prominent Apple (NASDAQ:) supply chain analysts discussed the pre-order sales for the much-anticipated Vision Pro headset.
Apple previously announced that pre-orders for Vision Pro will begin on January 19, with availability beginning Friday, February 2.
Analysts at TF International Securities estimate that the headset was “sold out immediately after opening for pre-order, confirming previous predictions.”
“However, pre-order demand cannot continue to increase steadily, which also verifies the previous concern that “it is more important whether the demand is sustainable”,” a rough translation of a Medium blog post read.
The forecast indicates that the Vision Pro’s stocking level before pre-orders, coupled with shipping time, could result in sales ranging from 160,000 to 180,000 units in the first weekend.
As projected, the pre-orders for Vision Pro quickly reached full capacity, with shipping times extending to 5–7 weeks shortly after opening. However, a crucial concern arises as, 48 hours post-pre-order commencement, the shipping time remains unchanged.
This suggests a potential decline in demand after core fans and heavy users swiftly place their orders. While popular iPhone models experience similar sell-out scenarios during pre-orders, the key difference lies in their shipping time.
Unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models witness a steady increase in shipping time 24 to 48 hours after the pre-order launch, indicating sustained demand. Reports hint at a better-than-expected demand for Vision Pro, with the supply chain working overtime during the Lunar New Year.
However, analysts say that the ongoing full-time overtime work at assembly manufacturer Luxshare, aimed at offsetting production efficiency impacts, suggests room for improvement in Vision Pro’s manufacturing.
Despite the rapid drop in demand post pre-orders, reaching 500,000 units shipped this year for Vision Pro seems feasible.
“Apple has a huge user base of more than 1.2 billion active users. As long as about 0.007% of users are willing to purchase after pre-order, Vision Pro can be sold out after being opened for pre-order. So as of now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product,” the analysts concluded.
