This map reveals us the good points by either side within the final seven days. Pink are Russian good points, blue are Ukrainian good points.
Should you’re questioning, yeah, that’s just about nothing. Russia consolidated some territory northwest of Kyiv, whereas Ukraine pushed Russia out of western Kyiv suburbs. There have been offensives reported there previous few days, and appears like they did good work—necessary as a result of it pushes Russia exterior of artillery vary of central Kyiv.
Russia gained a smattering of cities within the northeastern Kharkiv/Sumi axis, in addition to the Donbas jap axes. Down south, Russia occupied some roads on the way in which as much as Kryvyi Rih, however straight west of it, misplaced all that floor round Mykolayiv as Ukraine’s counter-offensive pushes towards Kherson.
The highest three axes could also be fiercely contested, however not a lot territory has modified arms. (Apparently, a Ukrainian hospital within the space mentioned they had been getting far fewer casualties from Kharkiv, as extra of the combating had shifted to the jap Donbas area.) The southern axis, nonetheless, is rather more dynamic. The arrow on the top-left nook of the map is the place Russian forces had been three days in the past. They’ve now been pushed down to simply 20 kilometers or so from Kherson. I questioned yesterday how Russia would react, and now we now have some clues.
Their southern axis, already under-resourced, was cut up into three prongs. There’s the trouble to get to Odesa on the decrease left of this map, which required both going via Mykolaiv, or discovering one other crossing of the Southern Bug river additional north (the place they received spanked). The center prong headed as much as Kyrvyi Rih, via lots of of miles of hostile territory swarming with territorial protection forces, to attempt to take a metropolis of 634,000. And a prong heading east to help within the siege of Mariupol. So what does Russia do? Right here’s that clue:
The Ukrainian spelling of that city is Snihurivka, and it’s on the street from Kherson as much as Kryvyi Rih. If it’s true that it was dashing again to Kherson, it means that Russia might have given up on that nonsensical center prong and is getting its artillery (and sure different sources) again south to defend Kherson. And you may actually see why it’s so necessary.
Liberating Kherson would provide Ukraine a propaganda victory if immeasurable price. The press remains to be afraid to query whether or not Russia is dropping. That’s why we see headline after headline about Russia “pausing” and “resupplying” and “regrouping” and “reinforcing” and the like, as a substitute of the extra correct “caught within the mud.” Shedding its largest prize, Russia’s dire straits can be more durable to cover. In the meantime, the Ukrainian folks would see tangible proof that the tide of the battle was turning. Now check out the map once more:
There are two major highways arising from Russian-occupied Crimea. Strategically, liberate Kherson and also you strand these Russian forces reaching for Kryvyi Rih and safe that southern method towards Odesa and as much as Kyiv. Handle a push towards Melitopol, and Russia’s troops within the southeast are in actual hassle. Positive, they’ll nonetheless be provided via Donbas within the east, however Russian logistic traces are already fragile sufficient. The very last thing Russia wants is to interrupt off items besieging Mariupol to reinforce their western flank.
We now know that the troops marching on Kherson got here from Odesa. The town is safe, and a possible 1,500 Russian marines hanging out offshore isn’t sufficient to actually threaten a metropolis of over 1 million. There are numerous comparable cities out west which might be immediately secure given Russia’s woes within the east, and their defenders can now be dedicated to the battle. What number of? No clue. Ukraine is actually not saying. However it’s no coincidence that a lot video the final two days has been of Ukrainian artillery barrages, versus the infantry ambushes that dominated the primary two weeks. (For instance here, here, here, and my write up right here.) The West (capital “W”) hasn’t introduced any artillery shipments to Ukraine. That is all native stuff, lastly deployed in battle.
The opposite issue at play—if Ukraine retakes Kherson and Melitopol, we’re virtually again to the pre-war borders, and Russia is likely to be eager about suing for peace, taking Donbas and Crimea for themselves as a comfort prize, one thing for Vladimir Putin to promote to his dwelling crowd as some type of wonderful victory (even when it simply will get us again to the pre-war established order). Ukraine has rejected any peace phrases that surrenders any of their territory. However Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must weigh any such critical proposal with the rising civilian loss of life toll in his nation. I actually don’t finish him that call.
