“On Friday, the slide’s sharpness obtained softer by the third hour, whose shut was bested by final hour’s shut. That is suggestive of a restoration, which can face the primary problem at 24350,” he says. Edited excerpts from a chat:
With the Nifty constantly being on a downward pattern, is promote on rise the perfect technique now? What are the important thing ranges to be careful for?
Clearly, a promote on rise method has been seen to date, because the descent from September peak, throughout which there was hardly any interval which witnessed greater highs. Such has been the bearish momentum throughout this era and all eyes are actually on the 200-day SMA at 23372, which is about 3% from present ranges. That it’s taking time to move to the 200-day SMA regardless of 100 and 50 SMAs being damaged some time in the past factors to the sharpness of the rise within the final 6 months. The space between 100 and 200 SMAs is the very best because the sharp ascent in the course of the 2020-21 interval.
We are actually at an ideal level to appropriate this anomaly as we method August low of 23893, offering a respiration area for bulls to regroup, arrest declines and probably have an effect on a sideways transfer at the very least. On Friday, the slide’s sharpness obtained softer by the third hour, whose shut was bested by final hour’s shut. That is suggestive of a restoration, which can face the primary problem at 24350.How would you go about buying and selling each Nifty and Nifty Financial institution for the month-to-month expiry?
Rollovers have picked up, however don’t appear to be giant sufficient to counsel a rush or an extension within the ongoing downtrend. They’re at 19.25 and 23.57 for Nifty and Nifty Financial institution respectively, properly consistent with the final 4 month’s common. Nifty and Financial institution Nifty straddles are additionally priced consistent with final expiry ranges of comparable durations, at 330 and 740 respectively, pointing to the absence of any exaggerated vary expectations, particularly given how far beneath Nifty’s 200 day SMA is. Volatility as indicated by VIX is barely close to 14, once more pointing to the absence of peak concern. None of this, although, is a sign in direction of reversal, however is suggestive of a calmer expiry. Amongst inventory futures, whereas 76% noticed lengthy liquidation, 16% noticed quick protecting, when in comparison with Thursday, pointing to some inexperienced shoots in direction of shopping for curiosity. Echoing this sentiment, FIIs, DIIs in addition to shoppers had been seen lowering shorts in index futures whereas boosting longs. The sharpest enhance in longs had been from FIIs, who boosted their lengthy positions in index futures by 5% on Friday.
Give us your Muhurat day buying and selling technique.
We’d go into the Muhurat session with a optimistic bias. Within the final 10 years, Nifty ended positively on 8 out of 10 Muhurat buying and selling periods. Aside from that, 80% of the time within the final 10 years, Nifty noticed the subsequent two months to be optimistic. FIIs have remained internet sellers throughout 5 out of the final 10 Octobers and so they had been internet patrons in November throughout 7 out of the final 10 Novembers which might add to the optimistic expectation for the subsequent two months. That stated, warning nonetheless guidelines, elevating the virtues of astute inventory selecting.
PSU shares had been among the many worst hit within the week. What are the charts indicating at – extra draw back or possibilities of bottom-fishing?
PSE index’s month-to-month chart is indicating extra weak point with minor assist close to 9900 and the breach of which might push the index down in direction of 8700. The variety of shares in Nifty PSE index buying and selling beneath 200 DMA rose to 65% from 40% final week. The month-to-month RSI is coming off the overbought area. Within the each day timeframe, the index has damaged beneath the downward sloping channel assist. Although excessive quick time period momentum indicators are shifting into the oversold area which might usher in some reduction within the close to time period, we anticipate such strikes in direction of 10250 to face resistance.
KPIT Tech ended the week down 23% after Q2 outcomes didn’t impress and led to focus on value cuts. Is it price shopping for the dip now?
Since August 2020, KPIT Tech has closed beneath its 50 WMA for simply two instances, however on this event it has closed 13% away from the important thing common. Final time (June 2022), KPIT Tech bounced again above the 50 WMA within the very subsequent week. In March 2024, the momentum indicator RSI (14 day) stayed within the oversold area for simply three days and we noticed a robust bounce again thereafter. This time additionally, the RSI has moved into the oversold area, however the distance it now has from the 200 DMA, now at 1608, factors to extension within the ongoing downtrend. We pin our hopes on the horizontal assist of 1330 or the 100 WMA of 1282, to arrest declines, and appeal to discount shopping for. Else, anticipate 1000 61.8 fibo of the 2022-2024 low-high.
Which shares are going to be in your watchlist within the Diwali week.
PRSMJOHNSN (CMP:191)
Goal – 205 – 220
Stoploss – 174
After the correction since September, the inventory has seen an inside bar candle on the weekly charts and it has been consolidating this week hinting at an try and reverse within the close to time period. RSI has crossed above its 14 day shifting common within the each day time-frame favoring our expectation of a pull again. We anticipate the inventory to maneuver in direction of 205 and thereafter in direction of 220 within the subsequent few weeks. All longs could also be protected with stoploss positioned beneath 174 ranges.
DMART(CMP:4052)
Goal – 4200 – 4450
Stoploss – 3845
The inventory has been declining because the final couple of the weeks and appears to have taken assist across the rising trendline assist of 3970 forming an inverted hammer within the weekly time-frame hinting at reversal. Additionally, the MACD histogram has proven early indicators of exhaustion at decrease ranges within the weekly scale and the Stochastic Momentum indicator histogram within the weekly time-frame too has shaped an exhaustion sample supporting our reversal argument. We anticipate the inventory to maneuver in direction of 4200 and 4450 within the subsequent few weeks. All longs could also be protected with stoploss positioned beneath 3845 ranges.
