Mint Explainer: How top contenders stack up in the UK PM race

How they got there

Mere weeks after the markets rejected her mini-budget, Truss fired close political ally and Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. He was replaced by Jeremy Hunt, a moderate former cabinet minister, who has reversed almost every significant economic promise Truss made while running for prime minister. With her signature economic agenda junked and an ideological rival in charge of the nation’s finances, Truss seemed increasingly embattled. Matters turned even worse after Home Secretary Suella Braverman resigned. While Braverman claimed to have resigned because she violated rules by using a personal email for work purposes, her resignation letter has led analysts to speculate otherwise. Braverman pointed to numerous failures of the Truss government and seemed to hint that Truss should take responsibility for them by resigning.

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With her popularity among MPs, Conservative Party members and the general public tanking, Truss acknowledged the inevitable and resigned.

How is the leadership election going to take place?

It seems to be clear that the ruling Conservative Party does not wish to have a long-drawn-out battle for the leadership. The contest between Truss and Sunak stretched on for weeks and divided the party.

Graham Brady, a top party official, outlined the rules of the election. Only leaders with the support of 100 MPs would be eligible to claim the top job. If only one leader makes that number, the leader shall be elected prime minister next Monday. If two or more candidates secure the support of over 100 MPs each, then a quick vote will be held among MPs on Monday. The final choice will be made by members of the Conservative Party through an online vote on 28 October.

What are Rishi Sunak’s chances?

At the moment, Sunak is in the lead. He finished second to Truss in a leadership contest which concluded about two months ago. 33 MPs have already announced their support for him. His record as a competent economic manager during the COVID-19 pandemic will be seen as useful at a time of crippling economic crisis. Polling also indicates that Sunak is best placed to take on the opposition Labour Party in an election. However, it will not be smooth sailing. Sunak is widely disliked among some sections. Rank and file members of the Conservative Party blame him for triggering the collapse of Boris Johnson’s government. A number of Conservative MPs are also suspicious of Sunak. At any rate, Sunak is almost certain to be one of the top two leaders squaring off to become the next PM of the UK.

Who are the other candidates?

Two candidates stand out. The first is former PM Boris Johnson. Mere months after leaving 10 Downing Street, he is angling for a return to office. Johnson is second only to Sunak in endorsements with 27 MPs declaring their support for him. Johnson has his electoral track record going for him as he led the Conservative Party to a decisive election victory in 2019. With the party seemingly headed for a drubbing in an election, this has become an important consideration. Penny Mordaunt, former defence minister, is also in the running. She had finished third in the race for PM behind Truss and Sunak. She is seen as a strong performer in debates and may be acceptable to more conservative MPs who dislike Sunak. However, she has not served as a crisis leader and does not have any serious economic management experience.

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