Mint Explainer: A split Israel and the persistence of Netanyahu

What is behind Israel’s political crisis?

The country has been in the grip of political instability since 2019. In April that year, former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost the support of a key conservative ally and was forced to call a general election. However, three successive elections in 2019 and 2020 brought only inconclusive results with no party capable of forming a government. While no political party or faction has ever won a full majority in Israel’s 120-member parliament, major parties cobble together coalitions with smaller players to form a government. In 2021, after a fourth election, Netanyahu was finally removed from office after 12 years in power. A motley collection of nationalist conservatives, centrists and Arab parties assembled a 61-seat government. This coalition held on until June 2022 when differences over Palestine among other issues caused the wheels to come off the government. This has led to Israel’s fifth general election.

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What role has Benjamin Netanyahu played?

Israel’s longest serving prime minister is at the heart of Israel’s political instability. Netanyahu has been embroiled in a corruption scandal that has marred his credibility with some voters. His opponents also accuse him of stoking domestic divides between Israelis and Palestinians in order to secure his own base. His supporters in Israel’s right-wing parties see him as the only statesman capable of safeguarding Israel’s security in an often-hostile regional environment. His opponents refuse to work with him while his supporters will not replace him with another leader. This has broken Israel’s political system which relied on horse trading and coalition building to run the country.

Is Netanyahu likely to return?

He has maintained a slight edge in the polls. His bloc is expected to win 60 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Netanyahu has received a boost from ultra-conservative religious parties that have seen an uptick in their voter base. Incumbent centrist Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s coalition is expected to pick up 56 seats. His coalition is also far looser and less ideologically aligned than that of his conservative opponents. Arab voters, who might presumably be included in Lapid’s coalition, seem disenchanted and are likely to turn out in lower numbers than in previous elections.

How will his return impact the region and the world?

Some experts believe little will change. Despite Netanyahu’s hardline credentials, he and his successors have made strides in improving relations with Arab neighbours. The Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between the UAE and Israel, were signed during Netanyahu’s time in office. Yair Lapid’s government has recently concluded a maritime boundary agreement with Lebanon. Netanyahu will likely want to enjoy the peace dividend that comes with a more stable region, especially in a time of economic crisis. Others say that his hardline policies on Palestine will hurt his outreach to Arab neighbours. The 2021 clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinian protestors tested the new relationship between Israel and its Arab neighbours.

On India, little will change. Netanyahu and his successors were in broad agreement that closer ties with New Delhi were in Israel’s strategic interests.

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