“The Congress ran a 400-metre race like a 100-metre dash,” Satish Poonia, key Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) chief accountable for the Haryana marketing campaign, instructed me. “The Congress could have thought they’d extra heavyweight leaders, however our employees have been higher,” he stated. The BJP’s win in Haryana ought to give pause to pundits and pollsters and their proclivity to overinterpret election outcomes.
It’s correct to say that politics after the 2024 Lok Sabha verdict is much less one-sided, extra fiercely contested, and to that finish, by definition, more healthy. However the sweeping conclusions in regards to the starting of the top of the BJP made by a number of analysts because the occasion slipped under the bulk mark and in anticipation of its Haryana defeat have been clearly untimely.
This doesn’t imply that the BJP can ignore the problems which might be creating discontent on the bottom. The rallying cry of “pehelwan, kisan and jawan” (wrestler, farmer, soldier) was not with out benefit. Else, the Congress couldn’t have clocked an 11% enhance in vote share (in comparison with slightly over 3% for the BJP).
However within the first-past-the-post system, profitable elections is as a lot a science as it’s an artwork. And with no dedicated cadre and organisational cohesion, outcomes are manner more durable to drag off. The BJP is clearly not simply higher at micromanagement, it additionally has a military of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) volunteers. And if the absence of full-throated RSS help value the BJP within the Lok Sabha elections, the Haryana marketing campaign appeared to carry them again to the fold. That has been one other lesson for all those that noticed everlasting injury in RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s seeming swipes at Narendra Modi in multiple speech. The BJP and the RSS could have needed to handle some frictions and redraw some strains. However their widespread objectives maintain them on the identical aspect of the struggle. And I doubt you’ll hear JP Nadda counsel a second time that the BJP has grown unbiased of the RSS.
The identical can’t be stated of the Congress marketing campaign in Haryana. When Kumari Selja stayed away from the marketing campaign for 13 days after which went public in a number of interviews, together with one with me, about how lengthy she had not spoken to Bhupinder Hooda for, how she was not allowed to contest the meeting elections, and the way she nonetheless anticipated to be thought of for the put up of chief minister (CM), it could have despatched a message to Dalit voters in Haryana.
It could not have been the one purpose for the division of the Dalit votes, however it’s one rationalization. Rahul Gandhi and the Congress needs to be particularly involved by this division as a result of the Samvidhan (Structure), which was the centrepiece of the Lok Sabha elections clearly didn’t have the identical potent resonance amongst Dalit voters within the meeting elections. “The depth of that subject had dimmed by the point these polls got here round,” Poonia instructed me. The domination of the Jat neighborhood, personified by the omnipotent Hooda household is prone to have additionally had an influence on the Dalit voter.
This, particularly, requires reflection by the Congress management. Rahul Gandhi’s central mobilising instrument to counter the BJP’s Hindutva politics is the plank of social justice. However in Haryana, it was the BJP that was in a position to faucet into the non-Jat OBC vote and no less than part of the non-Jatav Dalit vote. The BJP pitched “35 biradaris towards one” whereas the Congress ended up trying like a one-family, one-caste occasion.
The Congress overread the depth of anti-incumbency. There was public discontent, and the BJP responded to it by altering its CM and protecting him away from all publicity materials. In addition they dropped almost half of the sitting legislators. In contrast, the Congress retained 29 of its 31 sitting MLAs. The occasion clearly believed itself to be the favoured underdog to such a level that it believed its incumbents have been fashionable sufficient. After which the big variety of independents performed their half.
For the Congress, whose efficiency in Jammu and Kashmir has additionally been dismal — it received only one seat within the Jammu area the place it was anticipated to tackle the BJP — the small state of Haryana has introduced massive classes.
Going into the following spherical of meeting elections, it has misplaced a few of its negotiating energy with its allies. However greater than that, the Haryana outcomes have proven that ideological positioning by itself isn’t sufficient. Rahul Gandhi’s deal with caste census and politics of illustration could have many supporters however until the Congress is ready to construct a extra agile organisational strategy, the messaging could nicely miss its mark.
Barkha Dutt is an award-winning journalist and writer.The views expressed are private
