The acreage under kharif crops was almost 8.6 per cent less year-on-year (YoY) until the week ended Friday, despite a pick-up in monsoon rainfall across most parts of India. Acreage is significantly down for kharif crops like rice, pulses (arhar or tur, and urad), soybean, and cotton.
But, with monsoon rainfall showing a strong uptick since the middle of last month, there is hope the YoY gap in acreage with respect to some major crops will shrink in the coming weeks. Also, if sowing takes during the ideal planting period, the drop in yields may not be significant.
In total, kharif crops are planted in around 101 million hectares (mn ha); sowing was over in 35.34 mn ha until Friday (approximately 35 per cent) Therefore, rainfall in the remaining weeks of July and also August has become vital.
According to traders, for some crops, such as arhar or tur, the market has already started factoring in a drop in yields and prices not coming down significantly. This may have an impact on efforts to keep food inflation down as arhar is among the key commodities of daily consumption.
“In parts of Maharashtra and Karnataka, which are important tur-producing areas, deficiency in monsoon rains is still significant. That’s why planting hasn’t started in a big way,” Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda, told Business Standard.
Data showed monsoon rainfall is around 36 per cent deficient in Karnataka and between 31 per cent and 43 per cent in different regions of Maharashtra. Urad acreage is sharply down in Maharashtra.
For rice — the main cereal grown during the kharif season — data shows that until July 7, the crop was sown in around 5.41 mn ha — almost 24 per cent less YoY. The acreage of rice is mainly down in Punjab, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh.
In Punjab, a major rice-producing state, extensive irrigation coverage may ensure that acreage picks up. The monsoon rainfall, too, has been somewhat vigorous over Punjab and this should also aid planting of rice.
For other key crops lagging in acreage terms — namely soybean and cotton — trade and market sources believe sowing will pick up the pace soon as the monsoon has become active.
S Mahendra Dev, distinguished professor at ICFAI Business School, Hyderabad, said in June, monsoon rainfall did not take place in many parts of the country on time and this led to delayed sowing. “Even now, in many parts of Telangana, the southwest monsoon is deficient. Now it all depends on rainfall in July and August and the impact of El Niño,” Dev said.
If El Niño leads to a slowdown in monsoon after August, it may not impact kharif sowing significantly but if El Niño starts affecting the rainfall in July and August, it may harm kharif crops and their yields. Southwest monsoon rainfall since June 1 (until July 7) has been around 215 mm, almost 3 per cent below normal. MeT officials expect the deficiency to get wiped out in the next few days.
