Samajwadi Party (SP) national president Akhilesh Yadav’s actions have sharpened the dilemmas of chacha (uncle) Shivpal Singh Yadav and bua (aunt) Mayawati by fielding his wife and former Kannauj MP Dimple Yadav from the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. The seat fell vacant after the demise of his father and socialist leader Mulayam Singh Yadav, fondly called “netaji”.
Shivpal will find it publicly embarrassing to oppose his late brother Mulayam’s daughter-in-law in her fight to retain the latter’s seat, even though he has no love lost for her husband and his nephew Akhilesh Yadav.
The power tussle in the party led to their bitter separation after the Samajwadi Party founder-president handed over his legacy to his son Akhilesh. Shivpal leads the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (PSP-L) and is seen closer to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The differences, however, were buried during the post-death ceremonies of Mulayam, who passed away on October 10.
On Monday, November 14, when Dimple walked to the Mainpuri collectorate to file her nomination papers, almost the entire Yadav family accompanied her. They not only put up a united face but also declared publicly that the decision to field Dimple from netaji’s seat is a collective one and with the consent of Shivpal. Akhilesh Yadav said, “All will campaign for her historic win, a true tribute to netaji.”
How can Shivpal play a rebel when the December 5 by-poll is a tribute to his brother Mulayam?
Interestingly, Mulayam’s younger brother Abhay Ram, who rarely attends political events, was also present when Dimple filed her nomination papers. The last time when the apolitical Abhay Ram had ventured out of his Saifai home was at the time of Akhilesh Yadav’s swearing in as chief minister of the state in 2012. He is the father of Dharmendra Yadav, former MP.
Shivpal, who has been critical of Akhilesh and his coterie of advisers, has so far feigned ignorance about the family’s decision to field Dimple. However, he knows, he will face flak from Mulayam’s supporters if he opposes his brother’s daughter-in-law in an election in which emotions are bound to be high. Mulayam is a household name in Mainpuri and apparently the family had consulted seniors of the area before announcing Dimple’s candidature.
Akhilesh’s meeting with former Bihar chief minister Lalu Prasad in Delhi, before the party announced Dimple’s name, is also significant as the other name in discussion was that of Tej Pratap Singh Yadav, who is married to Raj Lakshmi Yadav, daughter of Lalu and Rabri Devi. Tej Pratap has represented Mainpuri in the past.
While Shivpal may have to redraw his Mainpuri strategy, another family member Aparna Yadav has also been in the news ever since she met the BJP leaders. Will the BJP gamble on her candidature?
As for Mayawati, she has yet to open her cards. But it is here at a rally in Mainpuri over three years ago that Dimple had given the BSP chief respect by publicly touching her feet. In a rare display of reunion after over two-decade-long animosity, Mulayam and Mayawati had shared the dais at Christian College ground on April 19,2019. Mulayam was in the fray from Mainpuri then in what turned out to the last election he contested. In caste conscious UP, where Yadavs consider themselves superior than Jatavs, Dimple touching the feet of Mayawati was an extraordinary step.
The SP-BSP alliance collapsed after the elections and the SP has become Mayawati’s political adversary again. Thus, she can play spoilsport, a replay of her Azamgarh feat.
The SP suffered a humiliating defeat in the Azamgarh Lok Sabha by-poll in June. That by-poll was necessitated by the sitting MP Akhilesh Yadav’s decision to resign from here and retain the Karhal assembly seat after winning it in 2022. There were two reasons for the defeat. One, some party leaders believe Akhilesh Yadav should have campaigned in Azamgarh as the BJP left no stone unturned to snatch the seat, an SP stronghold. Second, the BSP fielded a Muslim candidate in a Yadav-Muslim dominated constituency and took away a large chunk of Muslim votes. Eventually, the SP lost the seat by about 8000 votes.
So, ‘buaji’s’ role will be important as even Mainpuri has a sizeable Scheduled Caste vote, next to Yadavs and Shakyas. With a total of 1.7 million voters, the Mainpuri parliamentary seat accounts for 430,000 Yadavs, followed by 290,000 Shakyas and 200,000 Thakurs. Others include 150000 Schedule Castes, 110,000 Brahmins, 100,000 Lodhis, 70,000 Vaishyas and 60,000 Muslim voters.
Considering the caste equations and the sympathy factor, only Mayawati can help the BJP win the seat. Emboldened by its wins in Azamgarh and Rampur, the party has given a war cry as victory in Mainpuri can demoralise the main opposition party — the SP — in the state.
Chief minister Yogi Adityanath and deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya have already made it known to all and sundry about their determination to wrest the traditional stronghold of the Samajwadi Party, now that Mulayam is no more.
Maurya had told media, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi had himself told me that he did not campaign in Mainpuri, both in 2014 and 2019 general elections out of respect for Mulayam. But now the lotus will bloom there.” The BJP had lost the seat by less than 100,000 votes in 2019, though Mulayam was in the fray.
Thus, if the by-poll is a prestige issue for the SP, it will be a game changer for the ambitious BJP, which aims to improve its 2019 tally of seats. But it will have to cut through the local sentiments and sympathy. The party had won 63 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh 2019.
The party is keeping its cards close to its chest after throwing an open gauntlet to Akhilesh.
From her perch in Lucknow, HT’s resident editor Sunita Aron highlights important issues related to Uttar Pradesh
The views expressed are personal
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