Indian politics has kaleidoscopic properties. One can see many alternative issues by adjusting the lens. This week’s flip of occasions in Bihar has compelled analysts to deal with the character of Janata Dal (United) supremo and chief minister (CM) Nitish Kumar and his causes for one more political somersault. Some imagine this variation might inject renewed vigour into the Opposition camp to problem the Bharatiya Janata Occasion (BJP) within the 2024 normal elections and have talked about the potential for Kumar rising as a consensus candidate to guide the Opposition.
Nonetheless, the important thing to understanding the present second and its future implications for Bihar and Indian politics will not be Kumar, however deputy CM and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) scion Tejashwi Prasad Yadav. Regulate the lens of the kaleidoscope to see what has been unfolding within the background.
With RJD patriarch Lalu Prasad unwell, the celebration and ideological mantle of his politics are actually with Tejashwi. Because the chief of the biggest celebration in Bihar and with an extended political profession forward of him, how Tejashwi carves out an area for himself within the shadow of Kumar — with whom he shares each father figure-like affection and the animosity pure in the direction of a political rival — will decide whether or not this occasion is simply one other blip on the radar or has the potential to be a turning level.
Whereas we might by no means know the precise nature of the deal between Kumar and Tejashwi, we are able to conclude that the previous has little to achieve if he decides to step down as CM in favour of the latter earlier than 2024. So, the very best cut price for each is prone to be that the JD(U)-RJD coalition contests the following meeting election below Kumar’s management, and Tejashwi takes over the mantle after being groomed because the joint inheritor to Lalu Yadav and Kumar’s political legacy.
Will Tejashwi select to hold the Mandal legacy, or has he realised that the heydays of Mandal politics are over and that he wants a brand new narrative to take the BJP on? Tejashwi’s political actions and rhetoric, and Kumar’s response to those strikes, will inform us whether or not the brand new bonhomie is pushed primarily by desperation on either side or if the sphere is being laid out for a bigger sport.
Tejashwi’s actions are prone to rely upon his studying of rising politics, urge for food for the lengthy sport, and the power to reinvent himself. And right here, a comparability with the Samajwadi Occasion (SP)’s Akhilesh Yadav’s political fortunes in Uttar Pradesh (UP) could be instructive.
Akhilesh undoubtedly performed an important position within the 2012 meeting elections, however since then, the SP has misplaced each election below his management. Even the celebration’s finest efficiency by way of vote share within the latest UP meeting elections was not sufficient to catapult the SP alliance to victory.
An identical factor occurred with the RJD in Bihar. The celebration has been out of energy for the previous 20 years, aside from a quick interlude between 2015 and 2017 as a part of the ruling coalition. Within the 2020 elections, regardless of galvanising the marketing campaign, the RJD might solely emerge because the single-largest celebration — and its alliance with the Congress and CPI (ML) fell wanting the bulk mark.
Each Mandal events, the SP in UP and the RJD in Bihar, have hit a glass ceiling. Even their finest efficiency will not be sufficient to win them energy. The explanations for this are rooted within the detrimental picture of those events on very important points. For instance, the notion of being not solely gentle on legislation and order, but additionally selling lumpen parts has led to the lack of ladies’s votes. The turnout of girls voters has began exceeding males voters in UP and Bihar, impacting the vote share of each events. In UP, the post-poll surveys point out that the SP trailed the BJP by greater than 10 share factors amongst ladies voters in the course of the 2022 meeting elections. Equally, the NDA had a five-percentage level benefit amongst ladies voters within the 2020 Bihar elections.
Whereas it’s properly acknowledged that Kumar enjoys large reputation amongst ladies voters, Tejashwi ought to be conscious that Kumar couldn’t carry the identical benefit of girls voters in 2015 after they contested collectively. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll indicated no distinction amongst women and men whereas voting for the alliance, as each remained at 42%.
When voters had been requested to charge Kumar’s governance and improvement work, males rated him barely increased than ladies within the 2015 post-poll survey. So, Kumar’s reputation amongst ladies voters turns into operational when he’s contesting in opposition to the RJD, not with them. That is the place Tejashwi must reinvent the RJD’s picture, particularly for the reason that BJP has began gaining amongst ladies voters in lots of states. The post-poll evaluation from UP, Assam, Uttarakhand, and Goa verify this development.
Equally, the core social base, comprising the dominant-backward caste of Yadavs, is holding numerous smaller castes away from these events, and the BJP is now successfully utilizing the numerous Muslim base of those events to pivot elections on Hindu-Muslim axis. Spiritual polarisation helps the BJP to wean away smaller backward castes, leading to a internet loss for the SP and RJD.
Tejashwi is unlikely to interrupt the glass ceiling for himself and the alliance if he campaigns on the normal secular-communal divide. Nonetheless, he additionally can’t undertake a lax angle on the Muslim query as he will need to have realized some classes from Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), making vital inroads in sure pockets of Bihar. The fragmentation of the Muslim vote and its consolidation in favour of the RJD, paradoxically, each can show electorally expensive for the celebration.
Equally, some imagine that the demand for a caste census can galvanise politics in favour of Mandal events. Whereas Kumar and Tejashwi met former President Ram Nath Kovind final 12 months to make the demand, and the Bihar authorities has determined to conduct its caste census, Tejashwi should tread cautiously on this situation because it stays unclear who will profit electorally from this train. The difficulty can sharpen the dominant vs non-dominant backward caste fault line, once more limiting the RJD’s chance to increase its base.
As well as, Mandal events have been dealing with one other inner problem. Akhilesh consolidated his grip on the celebration by sidelining his uncle Shivpal Yadav. But, many relations proceed to carry the reins of the celebration. And the state of affairs has given the BJP a strong marketing campaign platform on nepotism and corruption.
This doesn’t imply that the BJP is bereft of candidates with a household legacy. However the celebration below Prime Minister Narendra Modi manages to weave a strong narrative on the poor governance document of the Mandal events, utilizing the dynastic lens. Tejashwi faces the identical problem of holding a test on the political ambitions of different members of the Yadav household, particularly now that he’s a part of the ruling coalition.
None of those challenges have easy options, and Tejashwi will want immense endurance and artistic vitality to interrupt the glass ceiling. Kumar, who can shock even his closest confidants, can impart many classes within the artwork of political administration, however Tejashwi must develop as a political man on his personal.
Rahul Verma is with the Centre for Coverage Analysis (CPR), New Delhi The views expressed are private
