On December 21, 2024, my buddy Dan Klein, an economics professor at George Mason College, despatched out an electronic mail to a listing that I’m not on however cc:ed me, with the next supply:
Anybody wish to give me 8:1 odds that on Jan 21 Trump gained’t have been inaugurated?
He linked to this submit on X. I didn’t even hassle clicking on the hyperlink as a result of these odds appeared good to me. We went backwards and forwards a couple of instances. I apprehensive about issues like intense storms that may sluggish it down by a day, and Dan was fairly gracious in making the deadline midnight on January 21.
So I provided $800 in opposition to his $100 and he accepted. We each hoped that I’d win.
I did win, and Dan has already knowledgeable me that he has despatched the test. He gave me permission to submit on this.
Would I’ve provided 20:1 odds? No. Various issues may have gone improper. Trump may have been assassinated—he missed one try by turning his head. He may have been shot however not killed and laid up unconscious in mattress. Dan’s fear, which I now know by having clicked on the X file (pun supposed), is that the Democrats would have discovered a method to sluggish it down. I assumed that to be extremely unlikely. Regardless of the purpose for a delay, you may most likely see why each Dan and I hoped I’d win.
By the way in which, I’ve not often had something good to say about Kamala Harris. However I assumed she confirmed large grace in overseeing the reporting of the electoral faculty votes on January 6.
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