Hurricane Ian gives would-be Florida Gulf Coast residents 2nd thoughts

Hurricanes have always posed an inevitable threat to Florida. But the risk hasn’t deterred the droves of people who have flocked to the state since the start of the pandemic.

From Tampa to Naples, the state’s Gulf Coast has become a real estate hot spot. Out of the top 10 fastest-growing housing markets this year, half are on Florida’s west coast with Fort Myers holding the top spot, according to federal data.

But after seeing Hurricane Ian reduce entire neighborhoods to rubble, will the newcomers stay? Experts are waiting to see if the storm will put an end to the Gulf Coast’s growth spurt.

“For a lot of the people, whether they’re remote workers looking at the west coast of Florida as an affordability move or looking for another type of lifestyle or climate, this just has to change that calculus,” said Thomas LaSalvia, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics.

For people considering a move, the storm may serve as the final tipping point.

Kira Smith, 54, has lived in Clearwater for more than 20 years and said she has grown increasingly frustrated by Florida politics. Before the storm, she thought about leaving to be closer to family, but now she and her husband are having more serious conversations.

“I’ve seen pictures and coverage from what happened just to the south of us and know that it could have happened here quite as easily,” said Smith, a remote researcher. With climate change, she said Hurricane Ian was a sign that things will get worse.

While some may be reconsidering Florida out of fear for their safety, Peter Rex, a real estate investor who has bought and sold apartments along the Gulf Coast, said others are more focused on the financial implications of the storm.

“Insurance costs are going to go way up and they were already high anyway,” he said.

Even before Ian, the real estate market had already begun to cool. Rex said that rising inflation and higher mortgage rates have made buying property less profitable for investors and less affordable for average people.

Despite the challenges the Gulf Coast faces, Budge Huskey, president and CEO of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Naples, said he is confident the region will bounce back.

Hurricanes have played a part in Florida’s volatile housing market throughout history, most notably during the 1920s land boom when two major storms marked the era’s rise and fall.

The effect can be temporary. People can be quick to forget the stress that comes with major storms with the passage of time.

Though Huskey said the market may cool slightly over the next couple of months, “it really is just a matter of time before things return to normal.”