How von der Leyen managed Ukraine’s EU membership hopes

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Good morning. I’m just back from a whirlwind trip to Kyiv with European commission president Ursula von der Leyen, days before a crucial report on Ukraine’s EU accession bid.

Here, I’ll explain how she walked the expectations-management tightrope, while our Seoul correspondent hears how commission trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis received a ticking off in South Korea.

Tomorrow, I’ll be in discussion with Dombrovskis, who is also the commission’s executive vice-president, and vice-president Margaritis Schinas at the FT-ETNO Tech & Politics Forum. Join us in Brussels or online, as industry CEOs, policymakers and thinkers debate topics including digital ecosystems and sovereignty.

Tough love

Von der Leyen’s assessment that Ukraine had “already completed way over 90 per cent” of its required steps to open EU accession negotiations summed up the double-edged message of her Saturday visit to Kyiv: impressive job, but not there yet.

Context: the president made an unannounced visit to Ukraine four days before her commission releases a report into the country’s progress in seven reform areas. That assessment is crucial in how the 27 member states will decide whether to open formal accession talks next month.

The “way over 90 per cent” remark, made in her speech to the Ukrainian parliament, encapsulates the central dilemma around Kyiv’s status: while at war it is doing a scarcely believable job in reforming its state — but a vast amount of work remains to be done.

Thus, while some more enlargement-sceptic EU capitals will be surprised to hear that Kyiv is so close to receiving full marks in the assessment, parts of Ukraine’s government were instead stung by what they saw as a patronising comment.

“This kind of messaging is generally negative. Even 99.9 per cent is negative messaging to Ukraine, you know, because we’re talking about existential transformations of the country,” said Olha Stefanishyna, deputy prime minister in charge of EU integration.

“It just sounds like ‘you have done 90 per cent and you [only] have three days to deliver on the rest’,” she said. “The more we are delivering, the more issues we’re raising . . . this will inevitably, impossibly, in no way lead you to 100 per cent.”

Von der Leyen followed that remark by saying she was “confident that you can reach your ambitious goal” of starting accession negotiations this year.

That rhetorical leap underscored the delicate tightrope in managing expectations that von der Leyen deftly walked while in Kyiv. She could neither afford to undermine the official publication of Wednesday’s assessment, nor anger member states with whom the final decision rests. However, she also needed to encourage Ukraine’s exhausted government at a moment when they fear the Israel-Hamas war will leave them neglected.

“They’ve done amazing things,” said one senior EU official. “But they can’t ease off now. I think there’s enough respect and understanding between us for some tough love.”

Chart du jour: Unlevel playing field

EU state aid has more than trebled over the past eight years as the bloc tries to compete with China and the US. This has undermined competition between businesses and the “level playing field” once guarded as the central pillar of the single market.

Practise what you preach

Valdis Dombrovskis has been a vocal critic of US subsidies for green technology. But on a trip to South Korea, he received a taste of his own medicine as his hosts complained about state aid to European companies — particularly in France, writes Christian Davies.

Context: Dombrovskis has railed against US president Joe Biden’s $369bn green stimulus package, describing the Inflation Reduction Act as “discriminatory” against EU-based companies not least because it cuts them out of a tax credit for electric vehicles.

France has responded with its own subsidies for electric vehicles, including tax credits calculated in part on carbon emissions across a vehicle’s entire supply chain, including those generated at its place of production.

South Korean trade minister Ahn Duk-geun raised concerns that this could disadvantage EVs produced by Hyundai and Kia in Asia.

“The topic was raised by minister Ahn during today’s trade committee,” Dombrovskis told the FT after the meeting last week. But he defended the French measures as having “clear environmental objectives, to take into account the total environmental impact of electric vehicles sold in France”.

Lee Hang-koo, executive adviser at the Korea Automotive Technology Institute, said the French move by itself would have a limited impact on Hyundai and Kia sales in the country. “But if the policy is extended to the rest of Europe, this could be a problem.”

But Lee also acknowledged that a proliferation of similar measures across Europe would force the Korean carmakers to produce more EVs in the region, mainly in central Europe. “They will gradually increase the proportion of their EV production in their Czech and Slovak plants,” he said.

What to watch today

1. EU ambassadors meet for their annual conference in Brussels.

2. Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg hosts Jordan’s King Abdullah II.

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