Nathan Anderson, 40, who builds high-end homes in Phoenix, bought this small, older house on a quiet suburban street lined with palm trees, with a plan to tear it down and replace it with a larger, modern one.
He doesn’t hire the crews or select the materials — Mr. Anderson, the owner of Rebuild the Block, signs a contract with a general contractor who handles those details. But he keeps a detailed budget that accounts for his costs — totaling about $1.29 million.
A shock to the labor market by a loss of workers through deportation and the fear of deportation could potentially drive up wages. And with the existing industry labor shortage, jobs could cost more and take longer to complete with fewer workers available.
This house is almost finished, so his budget is mostly locked in. But Mr. Anderson sat down with The New York Times and estimated how his labor costs might change without immigrant workers, based on his personal experience, and using this house as a model. The Times also applied national and regional labor trends to his calculations, and analyzed construction industry work force demographics from census survey data. Given that Trump policies have affected both documented and undocumented immigrants, we did not differentiate between the two groups.
To examine the potential effects of tariffs on Mr. Anderson’s budget, The Times turned to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a tool that analyzes trade flows and tariff data.
Without immigrant workers, Mr. Anderson’s labor costs could jump by 17 percent, adding $116,000 to his budget. The Observatory of Economic Complexity, using conservative calculations, estimated his material costs could rise by nearly 5 percent.
The house that Mr. Anderson is building was listed for sale in early March for $2.65 million. If building it had cost him another $236,00, Mr. Anderson said he would have listed the house for as much as $2.9 million. “That’s if the market will bear it,” he said.
Here is a glance at many of the major line items, and how they would have changed, with tariffs and without immigrant labor. Some figures have been rounded for brevity.
How the costs of home building could increase
| Item | Base cost | Labor | Material |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete foundation | $58,200 | +25% | +18% |
| Framing | $107,400 | +25% | +4% |
| Exterior home windows and doorways | $49,400 | 0% | +11% |
| Roofing | $38,875 | +20% | +21% |
| Siding | $64,540 | +26% | +7% |
| Plumbing, Electrical and Mechanicals | $138,000 | 0% | +8% |
| Insulation and drywall | $45,000 | +35% | +20% |
| Flooring | $66,539 | +30% | +2% |
| Portray and Wall Coverings | $45,400 | +19% | +11% |
| Cupboards and Counter tops | $18,980 | +30% | +17% |
| Home equipment | $26,000 | 0% | +11% |
| Different | $511,000 | +16% | +31% |
The Foundation
Last September, once the architectural drawings were complete, the building permits approved and the site prepared for construction, a crew arrived to lay the foundation, costing about $59,000. On the busiest days, as many as eight workers were on site. Some days, as few as three or four. Almost 70 percent, or $40,000, of the foundation budget, went to labor. About 90 percent of the crew were immigrants. Without them, his labor costs could swell to $49,800.
In 2023, the United States became the world’s largest importer of cement, a key ingredient for concrete. Conservatively, tariffs could drive up the costs for the house construction by 18 percent.
The Framing
By the middle of October, with the foundation laid, the framing got underway. Framing is a labor intensive job, and about 75 percent of this crew were immigrants. About 62 percent of his $107,400 framing budget — $67,000 — was spent on labor. Without those workers, labor costs cost Mr. Anderson another $16,000.
With tariffs, the lumber for the framing could add $1,760 to his budget.
The Windows and Doors
In January, the windows and doors arrived, costing $49,400. Of that, only $6,400 was spent on labor. Mr. Anderson said that changes to labor costs without immigrant workers “would be minimal.”
The Roof and the Siding
By March, work began on the roof and siding, and 90 percent of the roofers were immigrants. (Nearly half of roofers in the United States are not citizens.) Without them, labor costs could rise by 30 percent.
Materials for stucco siding cost $15,000. With tariffs, that line item could cost Mr. Anderson another $1,000.
Plumbing, Electrical and Mechanicals
Almost 90 percent of electricians are U.S. citizens, and 81 percent of plumbers. Mr. Anderson’s site was no exception. Mr. Anderson said his labor costs for electrical work, the HVAC systems and plumbing would be unlikely to change.
But his material costs could rise significantly, with tariffs. Electrical materials could increase by more than $4,800, while his HVAC system could cost him another $1,350.
The Insulation and Drywall
With the exterior completed, new crews arrived to add the insulation and drywall, labor-heavy tasks dominated by immigrant workers. Mr. Anderson spent 80 percent of his $45,000 insulation and drywall budget on labor.
A crew of two workers insulated the house, while eight to 10 workers hung the drywall. If Mr. Anderson had to replace all those workers, his labor costs could rise by 35 percent, a $12,570 increase.
Tariffs would increase material costs noticeably, too. In 2023, America imported more Gypsum, the material for drywall, than any other country, and so drywall is a material that could be particularly sensitive to tariffs. The price of drywall could rise by 22 percent, adding $1,540 to the $27,600 bill.
The Flooring
Flooring materials are the kinds of finishes that can persuade a buyer to make an offer. With tariffs, the costs for wood and tile flooring, many of which Mr. Anderson imported from China, could rise modestly.
But the crew laying the floors was almost entirely immigrant workers, and without them, Mr. Anderson anticipated that his costs could rise by 30 percent, to $51,000.
The Painting and Wallcovering
Painting and wallcoverings cost $46,000, with labor accounting for 80 percent of the cost. More than 47 percent of painters working in construction are not U.S. citizens, and immigrants made up nearly the entire crew for the Phoenix home. Mr. Anderson estimates his labor costs could rise by $7,400.
Tariffs could add 10.5 percent to the cost of house paint, raising the price from $8,400 to $9,300.
Cabinets and Countertops
The kitchen is the showpiece of any house, and the materials are expensive. Of the $96,000 spent on cabinets and countertops, 85 percent of that went to materials. Tariffs could drive those material costs up by more than $13,000.
However, cabinet and countertop installation relies heavily on immigrant labor, and the $19,000 labor costs could rise by 30 percent.
The Appliances
Mr. Anderson said it was unlikely that his $2,000 appliance installation costs would change with a loss of immigrant labor. However, the $24,000 he spent on materials could go up by $2,620, with tariffs.
Design, Management, Landscaping and Other Costs
“The market is tough with interest rates right now,” Mr. Anderson said.
But by this summer, Mr. Anderson hopes to attract a buyer for the new house with four bedrooms, oversize windows and a pool.
The asking price is $2.65 million. The next house he builds could be $2.9 million.
