Ballot-watchers all the time surprise what is perhaps the “October Shock” of any presidential election cycle. The pair of large hurricanes that smashed into the southeast United States over the previous week definitely qualify as surprises — and will form the result of the tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Massive-scale pure disasters like Hurricanes Helene and Milton appeal to public curiosity in ways in which different forms of information don’t.
Individuals who hardly ever observe politics take note of acts of God, empathizing with their victims whereas questioning how they may fare if such disasters had impacted them. Folks need — and want — to know that these requiring assist are receiving it.
Which is why the federal government’s catastrophe response is the very first thing that might form voter opinions. Each story of support not reaching disaster-stricken communities will probably be amplified in right now’s 24/7/365 social media pushed world. So the Federal Emergency Administration Company (FEMA’s) response is important.
The sooner it reduces hardship and restores order, the much less harm will accrue to Vice President Kamala Harris, whose administration will in the end be held accountable FEMA’s efficiency.
The countless information give attention to the hurricanes, nevertheless, may additionally function a legal responsibility to Harris by decreasing the quantity of consideration her marketing campaign receives in the remainder of the information.
It is a essential second for Harris. These early bursts of pleasure have been practically exhausted, and her lead stays in need of what’s wanted to calm jittery Democratic nerves. Individuals principally know what they consider Donald Trump, however many are nonetheless uncertain how they really feel about Kamala Harris. The vp wants constant, constructive publicity to agency up her polling numbers. And each minute spent on catastrophe protection works in opposition to her.
Then there’s Donald Trump, who may simply insert himself into the hurricane narrative in methods Harris can’t counter. Trump, as an illustration, provided free lodging in his South Florida inns to a whole bunch of linemen; Harris can’t precisely dole out invitations to the White Home.
Trump’s generosity could also be downplayed by the mainstream media, however regardless of. His allies will eagerly unfold these “caring” messages throughout social media, reaching tens of thousands and thousands of voters whereas Crew Harris can do little greater than push out cloying cowl tales in Vogue.
Hurricane Helene additionally locations strain on the election system itself in the important thing states like Georgia and Florida. Mail ballots might have been destroyed; huge voter numbers have possible been uprooted from their houses and at the moment are a whole bunch of miles away from polling stations. And this might make an important distinction in each states if, as anticipated, the election is razor shut.
Each states, nevertheless, have deployed government orders and different authorized mechanisms to facilitate voting by displaced individuals. Nonetheless, challenges stay, particularly in essentially the most impacted areas. And it’s troublesome to know how this would possibly play out on Election Day.
Whereas it’s true that the counties hardest hit in each states lean towards Trump, Democratic bastions resembling Savannah, Ga., and Asheville have additionally been devastated. Their poorest residents had been most definitely hit hardest, which may even additional depress Democratic votes.
In the meantime, each events may even attempt to management the narrative round catastrophe aid and clean-up, which barely benefits Trump.
Comply with the most recent from The Submit on Hurricane Milton:
Harris’ marketing campaign mantra is that she will convey change to the nation — a “New Method Ahead” moderately than a return to what she describes as Trump’s chaotic previous.
However Harris can’t challenge ahead momentum if the White Home can’t safe shelter for the newly homeless and energy for these now in the dead of night.
Failing to take action will play into Trump’s key line of assault — that the Biden administration can’t carry out throughout moments of nationwide urgency. And FEMA should now show this argument incorrect. FEMA failures are the very last thing Harris desires to be speaking about within the marketing campaign’s last weeks.
Then there’s the true risk that one other storm would possibly strike earlier than election day. Hurricane season will proceed by way of early November, and even the menace of a 3rd storm would eat essential media consideration within the marketing campaign’s waning weeks.
Once more, any speak about disasters and authorities skills is a much more harmful distraction for Harris than Trump.
Most worrisome, all this give attention to political efficiency shifts consideration away from the true story, the harm the storms have induced to innumerable households and communities.
Many Republicans imagine that Hurricane Sandy’s smashing into New York and New Jersey again in 2012 gave Barack Obama the possibility to shine at an important time, maybe even swinging the election in his favor. Information from that interval exhibits that Sandy supplied Obama with a transparent last-minute ballot increase.
Helene and Milton hit a lot earlier on this election cycle, however they’ve set in movement developments that tilt the talk away from Harris’ strengths and in the direction of Trump’s benefits.
And in a race that may possible be determined by tenths of a share level, the unprecedented double-whammy may emerge because the “October shock” that in the end returns Trump to the White Home.
Henry Olsen is a senior fellow on the Ethics and Public Coverage Middle.
