Apr 24 (IPS) – CIVICUS discusses Ecuador’s presidential election with Jorge Tapia de los Reyes, Coordinator of the Democracy and Politics Division and the Political Funding Observatory of the Citizenship and Growth Basis (FCD). FCD is an Ecuadorian civil society organisation that promotes participation, citizen monitoring and open authorities.
On 13 April, Daniel Noboa, candidate for the Nationwide Democratic Motion (ADN) motion, was elected president with round 56 per cent of the vote, comfortably beating Luisa González of the left-wing Citizen Revolution (RC) occasion. Noboa had been elected in October 2023 to finish the interrupted time period of former President Guillermo Lasso, so this election will permit him to serve a full time period. In a rustic with excessive ranges of insecurity, the election was peaceable and turnout reached 83 per cent. Noboa’s capability to deal with organised crime might be key to the success of his authorities.
How shocking was the size of Noboa’s victory?
The election outcome shocked all political analysts. Polls had predicted a really shut race, with variations of not more than two or three proportion factors, roughly between 100,000 and 300,000 votes.
Nevertheless, the truth on the bottom was very totally different. Noboa gained by a margin of greater than 10 factors, with a lead of over 1,200,000 votes. This phenomenon may very well be defined by what is thought to political scientists because the ‘spiral of silence’ or ‘disgrace vote’: many citizens hid their desire for Noboa within the polls or determined to help him on the final minute somewhat than spoil their vote.
What was Noboa’s marketing campaign technique within the face of rising insecurity?
Not one of the candidates offered strong or detailed coverage proposals through the marketing campaign. The electoral debate was dominated by private assaults and techniques to discredit one another.
Nonetheless, insecurity emerged because the central challenge, and that is the place Noboa discovered his best power. Ecuador is experiencing an unprecedented disaster of violence, with an alarming common of 1 violent dying each hour within the first quarter of 2025, making it essentially the most violent nation in Latin America.
Noboa’s proposal took a security-focused and forceful strategy. His rhetoric emphasised tangible motion in opposition to organised crime, mafias and drug trafficking, which have unfold terror among the many inhabitants. A much-discussed strategic transfer was his assembly with Erik Prince, CEO of Blackwater, a controversial personal safety firm with expertise of US operations in battle zones corresponding to Afghanistan and Iraq. This assembly, criticised by progressives, strengthened his picture as a candidate decided to deal with violence.
Noboa’s communications group additionally knew the way to capitalise on his rival’s errors. Whereas the RC questioned the present hegemony of the US greenback, Noboa positioned himself as a defender of financial stability, thereby reinforcing dollarisation. Whereas the RC proposed community-based options to insecurity, corresponding to peace mediators, Noboa opted to strengthen the standard safety establishments of the armed forces and the nationwide police. Finally, Noboa capitalised on collective fears of a possible return of the political group led by former president Rafael Correa, to which González belongs, and managed to place himself because the guarantor of stability and order.
Are opposition allegations of electoral fraud justified?
Completely not. The Nationwide Electoral Council (CNE) carried out a technically flawless operation that exceeded expectations. The verification and counting system allowed the outcomes to be considered transparently and in actual time, eliminating any suspicion of manipulation.
Furthermore, the dimensions of the margin of victory makes any situation of fraud mathematically implausible. Though the RC has denounced alleged irregularities corresponding to unsigned poll papers to justify its request for a recount, these allegations rapidly misplaced credibility when the official outcomes had been introduced. To order a recount, the CNE wants proof, and there may be none.
Moreover, on the morning after the election, representatives of some opposition events, varied nationwide authorities and worldwide observers from the Group of American States and the European Union confirmed the integrity of the electoral course of. This endorsement confirmed that, regardless of the challenges, Ecuador’s democratic establishments functioned correctly.
What function did civil society play in guaranteeing clear elections?
The function of organised residents was essential to the success of the democratic course of. By varied monitoring and remark initiatives, civil society acted as an efficient counterweight to potential irregularities.
The work of civil society went past election remark: we’re dedicated to constructing an knowledgeable and demanding citizenry. We perceive democracy not solely because the act of voting, however as a steady means of schooling, info and participation. With this in thoughts, we arrange a system to watch and confirm faux information on social media to fight disinformation and its dangerous results on the electoral course of.
Many disinformation campaigns are particularly designed to create worry and apathy and discourage participation. Our work sought to counter these methods by offering verified info and reminding those that solely the CNE has the authorized authority to challenge official outcomes or reply to studies of irregularities.
What are the principle challenges going through Noboa’s authorities?
Though there might be continuity, this might be Noboa’s first full time period in workplace, as his earlier administration was a transitional interval to finish the time period of the earlier president, Guillermo Lasso, after his early departure.
Essentially the most pressing and unavoidable problem might be to manage the spiral of violence. Noboa must implement efficient methods to drastically scale back murder charges and restore safety in public areas. Civil society calls for a complete strategy that goes past a purely punitive or militarised response, incorporating preventive and social inclusion programmes to supply viable options to younger individuals in weak contexts, stopping their recruitment by prison organisations.
On the financial entrance, the federal government faces an especially fragile fiscal state of affairs. Present income is inadequate to cowl the state’s primary working bills. This downside was exacerbated through the election marketing campaign, when round US$560 million was allotted to bonuses and extraordinary funds to numerous constituencies to safe their votes. It labored: residents felt heard, however on the identical time fiscal sustainability was compromised. The brand new authorities must steadiness public funds with out shifting the burden of adjustment onto essentially the most weak teams, specializing in bettering tax assortment from massive taxpayers and combating tax evasion.
Governance is one other key problem. Noboa will face a fragmented congress the place no political pressure has a majority, which would require negotiation abilities and consensus constructing to advance his legislative agenda.
When it comes to worldwide relations, Noboa must outline Ecuador’s strategic place within the advanced situation of the commerce conflict between China and the USA, each essential buying and selling companions for the Ecuadorian economic system. The difficulty of migration might be notably delicate, contemplating that the steadiness of Ecuador’s dollarisation relies upon considerably on remittances despatched by Ecuadorian migrants within the USA, lots of whom at the moment are victims of extra restrictive immigration insurance policies. Though Noboa has initiated bilateral talks on this challenge, it stays to be seen whether or not he’ll be capable to safe particular protections for the Ecuadorian group in opposition to the mass deportations ordered by Donald Trump.
Nevertheless it’s essential to know that Noboa didn’t obtain a clean cheque. To a big extent, his victory represents a rejection of the RC’s political challenge somewhat than unconditional help for AND’s programme. Noboa will subsequently need to construct his personal legitimacy based mostly on tangible ends in addressing the nation’s most urgent issues.
As civil society, our dedication is to keep up lively and constructive oversight of the federal government’s efficiency. Our function doesn’t finish with the elections. It’s important that we stay organised to demand accountability, denounce potential abuses and defend democratic values. Solely an alert and participatory citizenry can make sure the state fulfils its obligations.
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